Author: Uri Blass
Date: 11:12:18 02/09/02
Go up one level in this thread
On February 09, 2002 at 11:37:41, Sune Fischer wrote: >On February 09, 2002 at 11:14:05, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On February 09, 2002 at 07:44:27, Sune Fischer wrote: >> >>>On February 09, 2002 at 07:08:35, Uri Blass wrote: >>> >>>>returns. >>>> >>>>Imagine the following simple game: >>>>Every side need to say in it's turn if it resigns or not resign. >>>>The game is finished only when one side resigns. >>>> >>>>If both sides never resign the game is never finished. >>>> >>>> >>>>Imagine the following 3 programs for that simple game: >>>> >>>> >>>>Program A resigns with probability of 10% in every move >>>>Program B resigns with probability of 1% in every move >>>>Program C never resigns. >>>> >>>>program C finds better move than program B only in 1% of the cases but in games >>>>C always wins against B(B will do a mistake of resigning after enough moves). >>> >>>No, this is where you get it wrong IMO. >>>See C will not _always_ beat B, because the games will end at some point and >>>this will give B a winning probability greater than zero. >> >>Not in the game that I described. >> >>I agree that at some point there is diminshing returns in chess and I believe >>that it happens a lot before chess is solved but the point is that using >>statistics about the probability to change your mind is a wrong way to get a >>conclusion. > >Well you mentioned 1%, not me:) >Chess _is_ statistics, the weaker side always has a chance, a 2400 player can >beat a 2700 player once and a while (why else even play the match?). > >Maybe I misunderstood your game, in your game it seems B will resign even in a >completely drawn positions such as K-BK because, C will never stop playing the >game so B might resign before the 50 move rule. That is a strange game I think. > >-S. In my game there is no 50 move rule and it is not chess. The point is that even if the probability to change your mind is smaller you cannot learn from it that the rating difference is smaller. I cannot give a correct model of what happens in chess so I try to look at a simpler game. I can also look at chess and look at a simple strategy assuming that you know the right moves. imagine that chess is a draw and imagine the following players in chess: player A:always plays the correct move player B: always plays the correct move after move 60 when in the first 60 moves plays the correct move in 95% of the cases and resigns in the rest of the cases. player C:the same as B when 89% is used instead of 95% It is clear that if you do a match between A and B you will get higer result than the case that you do a match between B and C inspite of the fact that you can say that B is 6% better than C when A is only 5% is better than B. Uri
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