Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 01:54:08 04/13/02
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On April 12, 2002 at 23:50:17, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On April 12, 2002 at 06:27:29, Sune Fischer wrote: > >>On April 12, 2002 at 00:16:35, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>It _must_ affect both the rating of other players, and the "spread" to some >>>small degree. A drop of water hitting the pond changes the depth everywhere >>>as the ripples propogate around and reflect... Remember that the spread between >>>two player's ratings is a statistical average of how the two players do against >>>all other players in the pool. Adding a new player can change this. IE a >>>player joined our local club back in 1970, and he was rated 300 points above >>>me, yet I won the majority of games against him because our "styles" gave me >>>an advantage... that obviously changed the spread between me and other players >>>in the club, yet I did no better (or worse) against them after the new player >>>arrived... >>> >>> >> >>Well as a short term effect this will send ripples up and down the ranks, but >>when they have decayed and you have gone back to playing games with the other >>players, you will share some of your won rating with them, or they will also >>beat the new guy. >>The lasting effect is just an indication of the usual uncertainties that applies >>to ratings, i.e. you where actually stronger than you thought if only you were >>able to increase your rating. >> >>The overall spread can't really change if the same formula is used, the pool >>will expand or subtract to fit the formula eventually. >> >>-S. > >\ >If chess were perfectly transitive that would be true, but it isn't. I've >seen many cases where A beats B regularly, B beats C regularly, and C beats >A regularly. Of cause, this happens quite often actually, e.g. you can win a tournament even tough you lost a game. >When you change the pool, you can change _everything_. Because >a rating within a pool factors in _all_ players within that pool. That's why >absolute ratings mean nothing, and the "spread" between players in two different >pools means even less... And finally, if you transplant player A and B >from one pool to another both their raw ratings and the spread between them >can change, easily. Everything will change, but the correlation is high enough to convince me that the changes are only noise, besides humans sometimes have a bad day and do not perform at a constant level. -S.
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