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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 15:08:11 04/17/02

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On April 17, 2002 at 17:16:33, Roy Eassa wrote:

>On April 17, 2002 at 16:46:42, Roy Eassa wrote:
>
>>On April 17, 2002 at 16:24:22, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On April 17, 2002 at 15:59:18, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>>
>>>>On April 17, 2002 at 15:48:49, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>A given computer's rating will go down significantly (even though it does not
>>>>>gain or lose one iota of strength objectively) if and when its human opponents
>>>>>gain anti-computer skills.
>>>>>
>>>>>Does that make sense?
>>>>>
>>>>>I guess early ratings are one thing and ACTUAL STRENGTH is a different thing
>>>>>that is much harder to measure (requiring much more scientifically controlled
>>>>>circumstances).
>>>>>
>>>>>For humans versus humans, the two things (rating and actual strength) have
>>>>>tradionally been closely related, except when the player is a young child who is
>>>>>improving very rapidly.
>>>>>
>>>>>There is significant reason to believe that RATING and actual STRENGTH can get
>>>>>*way* out of sync with each other when it comes to computers, due to the extreme
>>>>>relevance of the anti-computer skills (and not normal chess skills) of the
>>>>>humans they have faced.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Also, most (nearly all?) computers that have gotten an early rating (using fixed
>>>>hardware and software) have seen that rating drop SIGNIFICANTLY over time, as
>>>>humans learn better how to play well against computers.
>>>>
>>>>Does that mean:
>>>>
>>>>a) The computer is getting steadily weaker at chess?  or
>>>>
>>>>b) Humans are quickly getting much better at chess?  or
>>>>
>>>>c) A computer's early rating is NOT an accurate reflection of the computer's
>>>>actual chess strength, but is SKEWED by the fact that humans lack a special
>>>>skill that is required in order for them to score accurately against computers
>>>>-- a skill that is SEPARATE and distinct from the traditional skill most human
>>>>chess players have focused on?
>>>>
>>>>d) Some other explaination (please fill in)?
>>>
>>>A computer with constant hardware and software should not be allowed to get a
>>>rating against humans if it cannot change it's evaluation function and players
>>>can repeat similiar strategies to beat it.
>>>
>>>If the evaluation function is not changed after learning from games then it
>>>should not get a rating without changes in the software.
>>>
>>>Usually changing the evaluation is done by the programmers.
>>>I think that it can also be done by automatic learning of the program from
>>>games.
>>>
>>>I think that the program also need to be private in order to get a rating
>>>because in other cases the player may buy the machine and repeat a game that the
>>>machine even did not know about.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>
>>I was not actually referring to a *specific* human learning the weaknesses of a
>>*specific* program, but rather to the likelihood that most GMs will improve
>>their overall anti-computer abilities with time, and some will improve this
>>ability by a LOT.
>>
>>Take a strong program running on a fast PC -- I'll agree it could rate 2700 in
>>current GM matches -- and put the only copy of it in a vault for 6 years.  Let
>>no human play it or study it during that time.  Let the best 3 anti-computer GMs
>>of the year 2008 play matches against it.
>>
>>I think there's a very significant probability that that SAME program running on
>>that SAME hardware would then achieve a rating of 2500.  Did it get 200 points
>>weaker sitting in the vault?
>
>
>
>Imho, PART OF the reason computers have scored so well against GMs in the past 2
>years is that GMs have not yet learned a necessary survival skill -- one that is
>SEPARATE from traditional chess skill -- that is required ALONG WITH their chess
>skill in order to play computers adequately.  The reason GMs have not learned
>this skill is simply that it has not been required until very recently, whereas
>standard chess skills have been required for centuries in order to defeat
>humans.
>
>Interestingly, GMs have also developed a different survival skill --
>psychological in nature -- that IS required to do well against other human GMs
>but is NOT required to do well against computers.

I am not sure if your assumption is correct.
I suspect that only knowing that the opponent is computer is not enough and good
anti computer experts need to use different strategy against different
computers.

Uri



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