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Subject: Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion

Author: Peter Hegger

Date: 11:52:26 04/23/02

Go up one level in this thread


On April 23, 2002 at 10:12:25, Chris Carson wrote:

>On April 23, 2002 at 09:51:42, Roy Eassa wrote:
>
>>On April 23, 2002 at 00:16:28, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On April 22, 2002 at 14:58:11, Russell Reagan wrote:
>>>
>>>>On April 22, 2002 at 13:57:16, William H Rogers wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I think that the new worlds champion will be announced just as soon as the top
>>>>>human plays a round robin game against the top computer chess programs. I think
>>>>>that there should be at least 4 to 6 games with each opponent. When this is
>>>>>done, then I think people will see a computer holding the worlds championship
>>>>>for the first time( not counting Big Blue). As to when this will happen, it is
>>>>>up to the humans, ie. today, tommorow, or 10 years from now.
>>>>>Bill
>>>>
>>>>Part of the reason humans (the _best_ humans) lose to programs is because they
>>>>don't have experience playing against them. Computers are still very strong, and
>>>>by no means will they ever again be "easy" wins for top players, but if GM's
>>>>studied computer play like they would normally prepare for a match with a human,
>>>>they would fair better. How much better is hard to say. Maybe they would win 5-3
>>>>or 5.5-2.5 in an 8 game match. I don't think a blowout would be common, except
>>>>perhaps in the case of Kramnik-Fritz since Kramnik will have had all the time in
>>>>the world to prepare and test the program.
>>>>
>>>>And you mean Deep Blue, not Big Blue :)
>>>>
>>>>Russell
>>>
>>>
>>>I have used the term "computer shock" for 20+ years.  It still fits.  Computers
>>>are not regular tournament participants, which means that meeting one under
>>>such conditions is a "shock".  And generally the human does far worse the
>>>first time around than the second...
>>>
>>>This will continue until computers are pervasive in chess.  They aren't,
>>>yet...
>>
>>
>>Good way to describe this effect.  Humans do seem to substantially underperform
>>(play below their true strengths) against computers at first, leading to
>>artifically high initial ratings for the machines.
>
>A really good example of this is the last Rebel GM match where the 2700 GM
>(anti-computer expert) played 100 preparation games and scored 2-2 (even) with
>Rebel.

Another example that comes to mind is Rebel's 3.5-2.5 victory over anti-
computer expert extrordinaire, Van Der Wiel.



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