Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 12:09:18 07/13/02
Go up one level in this thread
On July 13, 2002 at 08:02:09, José Carlos wrote: >On July 13, 2002 at 07:15:53, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >>On July 13, 2002 at 07:09:02, José Carlos wrote: >> >>>On July 13, 2002 at 05:35:24, Uri Blass wrote: >>> >>>>On July 12, 2002 at 19:16:31, José Carlos wrote: >>>> >>>>>On July 12, 2002 at 14:56:11, Ed Schröder wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Hi CCC, >>>>>> >>>>>>In Rebel I maintain a statistic file, on every iteration a counter is >>>>>>incremented with 1 (see column 2) representing the iteration depths Rebel has >>>>>>searched. When a new best move is found a second counter is incremented with 1 >>>>>>(see column 3) representing how many times a new best move has been found on the >>>>>>given iteration depth, between brackets the percentage is calculated. >>>>>> >>>>>>As you can see the very first plies Rebel often changes to new best moves, >>>>>>however when the depth increases and increases the chance Rebel will change its >>>>>>mind drops and drops. From 16 plies on the chance a new better move is found is >>>>>>below 2%. >>>>>> >>>>>>I wonder what this all means, it is still said (and believed by many) that a >>>>>>doubling in computer speed gives 30-50-70 elo. That could be very well true for >>>>>>lower depths but the below statistic seem to imply something totally different, >>>>>>a sharp diminishing return on deeper depths. >>>>>> >>>>>>Interesting also is colum 4 (Big Score Changes), whenever a big score difference >>>>>>is measured (0.50 up or down) the percentage is calculated. This item seems to >>>>>>be less sensitive than the change in best move. However the maintained "Big >>>>>>Score Changes" statistic is not fully reliable as it also counts situations like >>>>>>being a rook or queen up (or down) in positions and naturally you get (too) many >>>>>>big score fluctuations. I have changed that and have limit the system to scores >>>>>>in the range of -2.50 / +2.50 but for the moment have too few games played to >>>>>>show the new statistic. >>>>>> >>>>>>Anyway the number of positions calculated seem to be more than sufficient (over >>>>>>100,000) to be reliable. The origin came from extensive testing the latest Rebel >>>>>>via self-play at various time controls. >>>>> >>>>> Hi Ed, if I get this right, the second column (moves searched) is the number >>>>>of positions in which the program has reached the depth given by column 1. If it >>>>>was really "moves", there would be about 3x in depth 2 than in depth 1. >>>>> Then the idea is that many more changes happen in low depths because the >>>>>program is there many more times, so I (ignoring "Big Changes") calculated a >>>>>couple of other numbers: >>>>> The ratio moves changes / moves searched and the relative % of changes from >>>>>ply to ply: >>>>> >>>>> SEARCH OVERVIEW >>>>> =============== >>>>> >>>>> (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) >>>>>Depth Moves Moves Moves Changed / rel % of changes from >>>>> Searched Changed Moves Searched ply n-1 to n >>>>> >>>>> 1 113768 0 = 0.0% 0 >>>>> 2 113768 44241 = 38.9% 0.388870333 >>>>> 3 113768 34262 = 30.1% 0.30115674 77.44% >>>>> 4 113194 32619 = 28.8% 0.288168984 95.69% >>>>> 5 113191 30697 = 27.1% 0.271196473 94.11% >>>>> 6 108633 28516 = 26.2% 0.262498504 96.79% >>>>> 7 108180 25437 = 23.5% 0.235135885 89.58% >>>>> 8 102782 22417 = 21.8% 0.218102391 92.76% >>>>> 9 82629 15400 = 18.6% 0.186375244 85.45% >>>>>10 59032 9144 = 15.5% 0.154899038 83.11% >>>>>11 39340 5183 = 13.2% 0.131748856 85.05% >>>>>12 23496 2350 = 10.0% 0.100017024 75.91% >>>>>13 12692 957 = 7.5% 0.075401828 75.39% >>>>>14 6911 396 = 5.7% 0.057299957 75.99% >>>>>15 4032 193 = 4.8% 0.047867063 83.54% >>>>>16 2471 72 = 2.9% 0.029138001 60.87% >>>>>17 1608 26 = 1.6% 0.016169154 55.49% >>>>>18 1138 17 = 1.5% 0.014938489 92.39% >>>>>19 921 6 = 0.7% 0.006514658 43.61% >>>>>20 795 7 = 0.9% 0.008805031 135.16% >>>>>21 711 1 = 0.1% 0.00140647 15.97% >>>>>22 636 2 = 0.3% 0.003144654 223.58% >>>>>23 574 5 = 0.9% 0.008710801 277.00% >>>>>24 507 1 = 0.2% 0.001972387 22.64% >>>>>25 451 3 = 0.7% 0.006651885 337.25% >>>>>26 394 1 = 0.3% 0.002538071 38.16% >>>>>27 343 2 = 0.6% 0.005830904 229.74% >>>>>28 296 2 = 0.7% 0.006756757 115.88% >>>>>29 269 0 = 0.0% 0 0.00% >>>>> >>>>> Column (D) means the probability at a certain position at a certain depth to >>>>>get a change, according to your data, for a random position (I assume you chose >>>>>random positions, because this data comes from real games). >>>> >>>>No >>>> >>>>I assume that the positions that was searched to big depthes like 16 are only >>>>positions that the program had enough time to search in the game to depth 16. >>>> >>>>These positions are not random positions from games. >>>>I expect in random positions from games to see at least 10% changes at depth 16. >>>> >>>>Uri >>> >>> It's interesting that Ed, who has been doing chess programming for a lot of >>>years rely on statistical data, and you, absolute newbie to chess programming >>>can 'expect'. Quite amazing. >>> >>> José C. >> >>Very telling about your lack of knowledge about interdisciplinary thinking. >> >>Rolf Tueschen > > Well, you needed several hundred posts from Dann to understand the simple >concept of elo ratings. Lack of knowledge is easy to solve, while lack of >intelligence is a real problem. > BTW, interdisciplinary thinking has nothing to do with validating intuitions >through experiments. > > José C. Your habits are a bit strange for CCC. You want to insult people for their intelligence? Didn't you know that this is out of fashion? Also you cannot prove your visions. But I can prove where you lack of knowledge. Look at this: How do you know if or when I understood Elo system? Dann didn't explain anything to _me_, he was the only one having the courage to give his verdict about SSDF Elo system - _with_ me! We two the only ones. And you were dreaming of his role as _my_ teacher? That's funny. You do not understand what validity means... ;-) You have no idea of what interdisciplinary means too. You are the typical expert with narrow views. Do not insult Uri. Because he knows a lot about chess. Know what I mean? Chess is the basis for computerchess. :) Only interdisciplinary help could enlighten you. If you have questions, please tell me, I'll try to do my best for you. Rolf Tueschen
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