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Subject: Re: Waltzing Matilda (was: statistics, 10 events tell us what ?

Author: fca

Date: 00:34:05 08/18/98

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Bruce Moreland wrote [amended]:

> If someone won the first one then lost the next
>nine, I would say that they had lost nine out of ten, not that they'd lost nine
>in a row.

Agreed...

This is the casino problem.  Normally, you will let the punter play Ferret as
much as he likes (or rather, a limit will not be imposed by you because he is
winning too much), in the same way as a casino lets the punter gamble as much as
he likes (subject to other restrictions).

Now for any individual game the odds favour Ferret (a few super-GMs or n-tuple
cpu craftys excepted), as the odds favour a casino though I concede for
different reasons (Ferret's 'cos it plays so well, the casino because of the
rules).  Say the mathematical point expectation for Ferret per game against this
opponent is 0.51.

So, how much advantage does the punter have from the ability to "walk away" as
soon as he is "ahead" (whatever "ahead" means - let us forget grading as then
the question is too complex for me)?  Is this an advantage at all?  Please
ignore all psychological considerations, this is a "straight" ( ;-) ) math-chess
question.

Kind regards

fca




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