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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma

Author: Gerrit Reubold

Date: 11:40:09 09/27/02

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Uri,

I think your model of the game is not a model of the situation which I am
discussing.

Suppose you and me are playing the following game (f.ex. by email).

1. I, the host, take an empty chessboard and put a single king one one of the
squares. Trust me that I don't cheat. You send me your guess which square this
might be.

2. I assume you, the candidate, guess it is a1.

3. I give you a hint:
The square is not one of
   b1 c1 d1 e1 f1 g1 h1
a2 b2 c2 d2 e2 f2 g2 h2
a3 b3 c3 d3 e3 f3 g3 h3
a4 b4 c4 d4 e4 f4 g4 h4
a5 b5 c5 d5 e5 f5    h5
a6 b6 c6 d6 e6 f6 g6 h6
a7 b7 c7 d7 e7 f7 g7 h7
a8 b8 c8 d8 e8 f8 g8 h8

(Note that it is no difference if I suddenly forgot on which square the king
stands, I decide to look only on the given 62 squares and, surprise, all of them
are empty.)

4. I allow you to switch your choice (to g5, the only sinsible alternative)

Do you _really_ trust your initial guess so much not to switch? If yes, we
should find a referee and play for money.

Greetings,
Gerrit



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