Author: Daniel Clausen
Date: 12:18:19 10/03/02
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Hi Funnily enough I had this discussion with a friend from work on our way back home. I see that Linux' market is growing. The question is only - is it with more than the critical speed or not? I'm sceptic about that. I do see that the computer world has changed a bit. That more people use Linux than before. I also see/hear that governments are thinking about switching to Linux and similar stuff. I'm not really convinced they will do it in the end though. I can also "threat" to go to the competition with the hope that the product I'm currently using gets cheaper. Therefore I believe it when I see it. About the desktop market: I do see some changes in the last few years, but still, 95% of all people who use computers either couldn't care less about something non-Windows or they simply don't know/realize there _is_ something else out there. For my dad, the equation "Computer=Windows" is still true. I told him several times that, I have a Mac and that this _is also_ a computer, although it won't run Windows-software. After such a discussion he sometimes says that, yes he understood that, but... "what about my Astronomy program here!? That will run on your 'computer', right!?" There are a whole lot of people like that out there. And I don't blame them. Afterall it's not their fault. When they enter a store with computer software, _everything_ which is in these boxes runs on their system. Obviously there can't be anything else out there! The boxes often don't even _mention_ it's for Windows. If Linux (I've given up on Apple a long time ago in this respect) won't establish a bit in the desktop market (let's say about 10%, so not all companies can simply ignore it, as they do right now) in the next 2 years, then we're stuck with M$ (and Intel?) for the next 50 years at least. The computer (be it in form of computers today or consumer electronics like xbox) will play an even more important thing in the future. Once M$ is hard-wired in our lives, it's almost impossible for another competitor to do something against that. I still have some hope, but my expectations are not that high.. We'd also need software providers who think a bit ahead and offer their products on alternative platform like Linux or the Mac. But more often than not, this is the classic chicken-and-egg problem.. Christophe with his ChessTiger is surely an exception! :) [I have to nail him down on this *giggles*] >I don't think linux will overtake Windows anytime in the forseeable >future, but linux is here to stay. Yes, but so is Apple. :) They'd need a certain market share so the market can't ignore them easily. I'm not an expert in this (ok, I'm an utter novice :) but I'd assume that 10-15% market share would be needed to be 'really noticed'. >Did Rome last forever? No, and neither will Microsoft. That's a small comfort though. I don't know about you, but my life expectancy is not 500 years. ;) By the time M$ has taken over the whole world, I'll probaby leave software development and become a gardener. But by that time I will have to work with M$Plant probably. Shoot, we're doomed! ;) Sargon PS. This post was written on my new AMD/RedHat8 system using Opera6! :)
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