Author: Uri Blass
Date: 16:30:38 12/20/02
Go up one level in this thread
On December 20, 2002 at 19:07:04, Peter Fendrich wrote: >On December 20, 2002 at 12:16:25, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On December 20, 2002 at 11:03:14, Peter Fendrich wrote: >> >>>On December 20, 2002 at 04:10:35, Rémi Coulom wrote: >>> >>>>On December 19, 2002 at 19:28:01, Peter Fendrich wrote: >>>>> >>>>>I did, some 15-20 years ago, in the Swedish "PLY" a couple of articles that >>>>>later became the basics for the SSDF testing. >>>>>A year or so ago you posted a question about how to interpret results with very >>>>>few games. In a another thread I posted a new theory for this as an answer >>>>>"Match results - a complete(!) theory (long)". >>>>>I also made a program to use for this that can be found at Dann's ftp site. >>>>>/Peter >>>> >>>>Hi Peter, >>>> >>>>If you had not noticed it, you can take a look at a similar program I have >>>>implemented: >>>>http://remi.coulom.free.fr/WhoIsBest.zip >>>>Basically, I started with the same theory as you did, but I went a bit farther >>>>in the calculations. In particular, I proved that the result does not depend on >>>>the number of draws, which is intuitively obvious once you really think about >>>>it. I also found a more efficient way to estimate the result. I checked the >>>>results of my program against yours and found that they agree. >>>> >>>>Rémi >>> >>>Hi, >>>For me it's not so obvious that you can through the draws out. >>>I just took a short look at your paper and maybe I misunderstood some of it. >>> >>>Take this example: A wins to B by 10-0 >>>Compared with: A wins to B by 10-0 and with additional 90 draws. >>>Not counting the draws will get erronous results. >>> >>>The results between our programs shouldn't agree, I think, because I heavily >>>relies on the trinomial distribution (win/draw/lose). One can use the binomial >>>function (win/lose) and add 0.5 to both n1 and n0 for draws. That will probably >>>give a fairly good approximate value but the only correct distribution is the >>>trinomial. >>> >>>/Peter >> >>If the target is only to find which programs is better we can throw draws. >> >>You can imagine the following game chessa: >> >> >>One game of chessa includes at least one game of chess. >> >>chessa is finished only when a chess game is finished in a win. >>if a chess game that is played as part of chessa is finished in a draw then >>chessa continues and the sides play chess with opposite colors. >> >>By these rules in both cases the winner won 10 games of chessa with no draws >>(draw in chessa cannot happen). >> >>Uri > > >In that case you don't need anything more than the result. >What I'm doing is producing a statment like: >A is better than B with the probability of x%. >The 10-0 result will raise x very high but the 55-45 result will lower the >probability even if A is still regarded as the best. >/Peter if the 55-45 is result of 90 draws then 55-45 give the same probability that the winner is better as 10-0. The draws are only relevant for estimate of the difference in rating but not for deciding about the better player. Uri
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