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Subject: Endgame Position : Is this a win for Black or a draw?

Author: Roy Brunjes

Date: 07:58:00 01/04/03



I have been studying the following position, with the help of various programs,
and I am not sure if this is a win for Black.  This position was declared a win
for Black by some training software I am using.  The commentator there says that
after:

 1. Kg3     Kc2
 2. Kxh3    Kxb2
 3. Kh4     Kxa2

    "White needs 8 moves to queen and Black needs only 4"

The commentator then goes on to say that if instead of 1. Kg3, white tries 1.
b4, that 1. ... Kc4! follows and the game is over.

However, as you can see from the pgn I post below, after I forced the first move
on each side (1. Kg3 Kc2) Chess Tiger 14 plays 2. b4 and the game seems to be a
much tougher win for Black, if indeed a win still exists.  Odd how the
commentator sees 1. b4  but not the possiblity of 2. b4 after the Black King has
gone too far "south" to provide the same defense it could a move earlier.  By
the way, Tiger wanted to play 1... Ke3 instead of 1. ... Kc2.  Given a bit more
time, Tiger switches to Ke2 with the following played in the 30+30 shootout I am
running: 1. Kg3 Ke2 2. a3 h2 3. Kxh2 Kxf3 4. Kg1 Kxf4 and the eval is hugely in
Black's favor.  So it would appear that 1. ... Ke2 is superior to the
commentator's suggested 1. ... Kc2.

I post below the analysis of Chess Tiger 14 (48 MB hash) generated by the H8 GUI
option "shootout" with a time control of 10 minutes + 15 seconds per move
increment on my 1.6 GHz laptop.  Tiger seemed to average about 20-25 seconds per
move at this time control.

Tiger is a respectable endgame player and it can only see a draw after many
moves.  Is Tiger right?  I am running the shootout again, this time with 30
minutes + 30 seconds per move increment to see if additional time makes any
difference in the result.

Here is the diagram ...

[D] 8/8/6p1/1p3p2/5P2/3k1P1p/PP3K2/8 w

And here is the 10+15 shootout output from Chess Tiger 14.0 on my P4 1.6 GHz
laptop using 48 MB for hash:

1. Kg3 Kc2 2. b4 Kd3 3. a4 bxa4 4. b5 a3 5. b6 a2 6. b7 a1=Q 7. b8=Q Qe1+ 8.
Kxh3 Ke3 9. Qe5+ Kf2 10. Kh4 Qh1+ 11. Kg5 Qh5+ 12. Kf6 Kxf3 13. Qd6 Qg4 14. Qd2
Qxf4 15. Qd1+ Kg2 16. Qc2+ Qf2 17. Qc6+ Kh2 18. Qb7 g5 19. Kxg5 f4 20. Qh7+ Kg2
21. Qe4+ f3 22. Kf6 Qb2+ 23. Kf5 Qe2 24. Qg4+ Kf1 25. Kf4 f2 26. Qg6 Qc4+ 27.
Kg3 Qc3+ 28. Kh2 Qc7+ 29. Kh3 Qc8+ 30. Kg3 Qb8+ 31. Kh3 Qh8+ 32. Kg3 Qe5+ 33.
Kh3 Qe3+ 34. Kh2 Qf4+ 35. Kh3 Qf3+ 36. Kh2 Qd5 37. Qb1+ Ke2 38. Qb2+ Qd2 39.
Qe5+ Qe3 40. Qb2+ Ke1 41. Qb1+ Kd2 42. Qa2+ 1/2-1/2

It appears to me that the commentator missed an important continuation for both
sides:

    A.   1. ... Ke2 appears superior to 1. ... Kc2
    B.   After 1. Kg2 Kc2 it appears that 2. b4! draws

What do you folks think?  What do your programs think?  Thanks for your help!

Roy



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