Author: Graham Laight
Date: 02:35:44 01/07/03
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On January 06, 2003 at 13:47:04, Uri Blass wrote: >On January 06, 2003 at 12:49:56, Graham Laight wrote: > >>Human chess is all about pattern recognition. Computers achieved their strength >>though sheer speed. > >How do you know it? > >I suspect that part of the advantage of the commercial programs may be detecting >some patterns. Obviously what I said is a simplification (it's difficult to discuss complex subjects without simplifying), but in general, my answer to the question "How do you know?" is "It's obvious". 1. From the book "Chess Skill In Man And Machine" (now out of print unfortunately), we know that reasearchers have shown that human GMs have knowledge of 50,000 patterns which can arise in a chess game 2. If computers knew as much about chess as humans in a static evaluation (which is what you seem to be saying when you say that commercial programs may recognise a large number of patterns) then, given that they evaluate over a million nodes per second, they ought to thrash the humans out of sight >>I doubt if there's time to do computer chess the correct way now - by the time a >>pattern recogniser would be able to get up to the required strength, all games >>will be a draw (this will happen at about 3500 elo - see >>http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ratings/Draws.jpg . Moreover, Rudolf Huber has >>proven that there's no forced win in the first 30 moves. IMO, it is proven >>beyond reasonable doubt (though not actually 100% proven) that there's no forced >>win in ANY number of moves - chess is a draw). > >There are still many years to see all the games drawn at tournament time >control. > >Even correspondence players do not draw every game inspite of massive use of >computers by both sides. Then correspondence players are not playing at 3500 elo. >It means that even if the hardware becomes 50 times faster you are not going to >be a draw death of computer chess at 120/40 unless you see some improvements in >software. If computers improve at 40 elo per year (software and hardware), then you must wait about 15 years for the death of computer chess (these numbers are guesses, not carefully calculated extrapolations). -g >Uri
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