Author: Christopher A. Morgan
Date: 09:54:58 01/31/03
Although the argument will go on, a pattern is emerging that the top chess programs playing at a relatively modest speed of +/- 3 million nps are near or at equality with human super grandmasters. This speed is less than 2% of the speed of Deep Blue II in its match with Kasparov in 1997. After 15 recent games of super GMs versus three different programs the score is equal (Kramnik-DF (8), Bareev-Hiarcs X(4), and Kasparov-DJ(3)). The human players are the number 1, 2 and 8 players in the world with an average ELO of 2794 (January 2003 FIDE ELO list). Although, statistically, 15 games are not enough to come to a definitive conclusion, it appears clear that insofar as playing humans (meaning the very top chess playing humans) the machines will, within a relatively short time, decisively win every match with humans. It has taken the machines a very long time to get to where they are today. It is still incredible to me that humans are still competitive in what is essentially a game of calculation. Human intelligence is extraordinary.
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