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Subject: Re: Inflationary Effects?

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 21:02:31 07/13/03

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On July 13, 2003 at 15:22:31, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On July 13, 2003 at 15:03:38, Sune Fischer wrote:
>
>>On July 13, 2003 at 12:42:19, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>I (and many others) believe that the Elo system works well for players
>>>that are pretty close in rating.  It seems to work less well (in the case
>>>of computers) for players that are significantly separated in ratings.
>>
>>I agree mostly, not sure why it should be different for computers though.
>>
>>>Starting at the top eliminates the bottom of the pool from the "war".  If
>>>the bottom can't drop, then neither can the players at the top.  So you get a
>>>new top.  If you start the new (and strong) program at the bottom, he will
>>>drop _everybody_ as he goes up, and it would seem that this would result in
>>>the new player going to the right "differential" spot but that it might be
>>>lower than it would have been with a high start.
>
>I can add here, that his opponents wouldn't go down, on average they would stay
>the same because you can't adjust their rating based on someone who hasn't got
>an established rating.

The general answer to this is that his opponent's ratings are updated _after_
his rating goes beyond provisional and is established.  But beyond that, we
are only talking about the first 20-24 games.  How long will a player play
before he succeeds in working his way up to Kasparov's notice?

>
>After he has played the entire field, you might see the bottom increasing and
>the top dropping, thus deflating the scale. That is, if my suspicion of the Elo
>formula holds true.
>
>-S.



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