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Subject: Re: When will a deep Blue equivalent Be commercially Available?

Author: Oliver Y.

Date: 04:16:39 11/09/98

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I would just like to say that I enjoy the simple fact that you bothered to reply
to my post.  Simple pleasures like this--truly informed selfless, busy people
taking the time to inform--brings me back as often as I have the time.

It's a mystery to me why people can't get along when they are thousands of miles
apart.  All of you that are grumpy, "can't we all get along?"

I would like to add my name to those who will stay in CCC.
How about y'all come to my town for a nice steak dinner?
Oliver

On November 07, 1998 at 09:59:23, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On November 07, 1998 at 06:35:21, Oliver Y. wrote:
>
>>21 years assumes a continuous exponential rate of improvement.
>>It does not consider S. Kuhn's observations re discovery.
>>Moreover, the sources of quantum changes are also increasing, ever interacting.
>>(I.e., Biological, quantum computing)
>>Perhaps Mark Young's guess is the most plausible, though Mr. Hyatt has provided
>>the very useful baseline.
>>
>>I would love to know how much of a return would be obtained if these great
>>programmers pooled their resources without reservation.
>>How would the rate of improvement change?
>>
>>My guess is less than a factor of n, where n is the number of cooperators.
>
>
>Speaking for myself, progress was *much* faster back in the days of the annual
>ACM events... because each year we all gathered around a table during the
>tournament and talked about things we'd tried over the past year.  There's
>much less of that today, although places like CCC and r.g.c.c still keep the
>idea alive.



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