Author: Odd Gunnar Malin
Date: 03:49:32 11/21/03
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On November 21, 2003 at 06:33:08, Graham Laight wrote: >On November 21, 2003 at 06:20:40, Odd Gunnar Malin wrote: > >>On November 21, 2003 at 05:07:32, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>>Everybody knows that as chess computers improve, the proportion of draws in >>>their games becomes higher. >>> >>>The same is true of humans: the following graph suggests that at Elo 3600, all >>>games will be drawn: http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ratings/Draws.jpg . I also >>>think that a player who plays at Elo 3600 would be unbeatable - no matter how >>>good his opponent was. For a 3600 player, obtaining a draw would, IMO, be almost >>>as easy as it would be for me to obtain a draw against Kasparov with only a king >>>against a king and a knight. In this situation, Kasparov's extra skill and >>>knowledge of the game (and his extra piece) would count for nothing. >>> >>>If what I'm saying is right (and I personally think that it is), then there's a >>>serious problem ahead for the Elo rating system: the system measures chess skill >>>by a player's likelihood of beating another player. However - if the computer >>>that can see 50 ply ahead is unable to beat the machine that can only see 25 ply >>>ahead, then, according to the Elo rating system, it would have the same Elo >>>rating! >>> >> >>There are more players in the pool. >>Would the result (over time) against a 20 ply player be equal for both? > >Up to elo 3600, the program with the best eval function would win. > Yes, but what I meant was would it be like this in a 100 games match: 50ply - 20ply = 80-20-0 (w/d/l) 25ply - 20ply = 40-60-0 (w/d/l) You said above that your thought was that a match against 25ply and 50ply would end in a draw, eg. 25ply - 50ply = 0-100-0 (w/d/l) Because two player play always draw or not according to their Elo when they are faced each other would not mean that their score against weaker players still should be the same. Odd Gunnar
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