Author: Graham Laight
Date: 04:05:35 11/21/03
Go up one level in this thread
On November 21, 2003 at 06:49:32, Odd Gunnar Malin wrote: >On November 21, 2003 at 06:33:08, Graham Laight wrote: > >>On November 21, 2003 at 06:20:40, Odd Gunnar Malin wrote: >> >>>On November 21, 2003 at 05:07:32, Graham Laight wrote: >>> >>>>Everybody knows that as chess computers improve, the proportion of draws in >>>>their games becomes higher. >>>> >>>>The same is true of humans: the following graph suggests that at Elo 3600, all >>>>games will be drawn: http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ratings/Draws.jpg . I also >>>>think that a player who plays at Elo 3600 would be unbeatable - no matter how >>>>good his opponent was. For a 3600 player, obtaining a draw would, IMO, be almost >>>>as easy as it would be for me to obtain a draw against Kasparov with only a king >>>>against a king and a knight. In this situation, Kasparov's extra skill and >>>>knowledge of the game (and his extra piece) would count for nothing. >>>> >>>>If what I'm saying is right (and I personally think that it is), then there's a >>>>serious problem ahead for the Elo rating system: the system measures chess skill >>>>by a player's likelihood of beating another player. However - if the computer >>>>that can see 50 ply ahead is unable to beat the machine that can only see 25 ply >>>>ahead, then, according to the Elo rating system, it would have the same Elo >>>>rating! >>>> >>> >>>There are more players in the pool. >>>Would the result (over time) against a 20 ply player be equal for both? >> >>Up to elo 3600, the program with the best eval function would win. >> > >Yes, but what I meant was would it be like this in a 100 games match: >50ply - 20ply = 80-20-0 (w/d/l) >25ply - 20ply = 40-60-0 (w/d/l) > >You said above that your thought was that a match against 25ply and 50ply would >end in a draw, eg. >25ply - 50ply = 0-100-0 (w/d/l) > >Because two player play always draw or not according to their Elo when they are >faced each other would not mean that their score against weaker players still >should be the same. Aha - now I understand! This is a very good point. Although I think that a 3600 elo player could not be beaten (except very occasionally), it might still be possible to go above 3600 by beating a higher proportion of weaker players. Point conceded. -g >Odd Gunnar
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