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Subject: Re: Junior - Crafty NPS Challenge - a user experiment

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 04:13:48 11/25/03

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On November 25, 2003 at 06:47:16, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On November 24, 2003 at 23:18:35, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>>Whether we get 2% draws or 98% draws says nothing about what happens in the
>>>remaining 98% respectively 2% of the games, and that *only that* is what we are
>>>interested in.
>>
>>That's a problem, IMHO.  IE I get sick and lose one set.  Am I _really_
>>worse, when we have played 1000 sets all to draws?
>
>Definitely, but probably bot by a very large margin, however the question isn't
>about margins.
>
>>>>  Particularly since we are dealing with
>>>>humans and computers that can "get sick".  Suppose on a normal day we
>>>>can only draw, but I get sick and lose 6 in a row.  You conclude you
>>>>are better.  You are wrong.  The 1000 draws are much more representative
>>>>of how we compare than the 6 wins/losses, in this case.
>>>
>>>You are mixing up the two question because you feel that being 0.001 better is
>>>being equal, and it isn't in a mathematical sense.
>>
>>If we played at the same level _every_ set, game or match, I'd agree.
>
>Good, so at least we must be agreeing now as far as the engines go!? :)
>
>>But
>>humans don't do that.  with 1000 draws and 1 win I would _not_ say the person
>>with the 1 win is better, in any way...
>
>Do you think statistics care whether the subjects are humans or computers?
>
>When you've said A, you must say B. :)
>
>-S.

I think that we can say nothing only based on the results of one match.

With deterministic machines and no learning and no book it is possible to get
A beats B 100-0
B beats C 100-0
C beats A 100-0

The games can be always the same and if you look only in the result of one match
you can get the wrong conclusion.

Uri



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