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Subject: Re: Junior - Crafty NPS Challenge - a user experiment

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 03:47:16 11/25/03

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On November 24, 2003 at 23:18:35, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>>Whether we get 2% draws or 98% draws says nothing about what happens in the
>>remaining 98% respectively 2% of the games, and that *only that* is what we are
>>interested in.
>
>That's a problem, IMHO.  IE I get sick and lose one set.  Am I _really_
>worse, when we have played 1000 sets all to draws?

Definitely, but probably bot by a very large margin, however the question isn't
about margins.

>>>  Particularly since we are dealing with
>>>humans and computers that can "get sick".  Suppose on a normal day we
>>>can only draw, but I get sick and lose 6 in a row.  You conclude you
>>>are better.  You are wrong.  The 1000 draws are much more representative
>>>of how we compare than the 6 wins/losses, in this case.
>>
>>You are mixing up the two question because you feel that being 0.001 better is
>>being equal, and it isn't in a mathematical sense.
>
>If we played at the same level _every_ set, game or match, I'd agree.

Good, so at least we must be agreeing now as far as the engines go!? :)

>But
>humans don't do that.  with 1000 draws and 1 win I would _not_ say the person
>with the 1 win is better, in any way...

Do you think statistics care whether the subjects are humans or computers?

When you've said A, you must say B. :)

-S.



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