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Subject: Re: Junior - Crafty NPS Challenge - a user experiment

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 07:12:31 11/25/03

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On November 25, 2003 at 06:47:16, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On November 24, 2003 at 23:18:35, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>>Whether we get 2% draws or 98% draws says nothing about what happens in the
>>>remaining 98% respectively 2% of the games, and that *only that* is what we are
>>>interested in.
>>
>>That's a problem, IMHO.  IE I get sick and lose one set.  Am I _really_
>>worse, when we have played 1000 sets all to draws?
>
>Definitely, but probably bot by a very large margin, however the question isn't
>about margins.

How am I worse?  If we play from now to infinity, and I don't get sick again,
we draw.  Or, in the future _you_ get ill and I win a few.

I was worse before, am I now somehow better??

>
>>>>  Particularly since we are dealing with
>>>>humans and computers that can "get sick".  Suppose on a normal day we
>>>>can only draw, but I get sick and lose 6 in a row.  You conclude you
>>>>are better.  You are wrong.  The 1000 draws are much more representative
>>>>of how we compare than the 6 wins/losses, in this case.
>>>
>>>You are mixing up the two question because you feel that being 0.001 better is
>>>being equal, and it isn't in a mathematical sense.
>>
>>If we played at the same level _every_ set, game or match, I'd agree.
>
>Good, so at least we must be agreeing now as far as the engines go!? :)

Not quite.  I have lost more than one game to hardware problems.  But it is
still a loss, and it is a random event.  One hardware crash and I am worse.

>
>>But
>>humans don't do that.  with 1000 draws and 1 win I would _not_ say the person
>>with the 1 win is better, in any way...
>
>Do you think statistics care whether the subjects are humans or computers?

No, and that's a problem.  They are _not_ the same, as has been seen over
and over...


>
>When you've said A, you must say B. :)
>
>-S.



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