Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 11:20:43 01/23/04
Go up one level in this thread
On January 23, 2004 at 07:08:07, Kolss wrote:
>On January 22, 2004 at 12:53:16, Christophe Theron wrote:
>
>>On January 21, 2004 at 20:00:12, Kolss wrote:
>>
>>>Hi,
>>>
>>>How many games you need depends on what you want to show, of course... :-)
>>>If my calculations are correct, I get the following:
>>>
>>>Shredder 8 vs. Shredder 7.04:
>>>
>>>+90 -65 =145
>>>
>>>=> 162.5 - 137.5
>>>
>>>=> 54.17 %
>>>
>>>=>
>>>Elo difference = +29
>>>95 % confidence interval: [+1, +58]
>>>
>>>That means that based on this 300-game match (for this particular time control
>>>on this particular computer with these particular settings etc.), your best
>>>guess is that S8 is 29 Elo points better than S7.04 (highest likelihood for that
>>>value); there is a 95 % chance that S8 is between 1 and 58 Elo points better;
>>>and the likelihood that S8 is (at least 1 Elo point) better than S7.04 is 97.5
>>>%.
>>>
>>>So if you "only" want to show that S8 is better, you can - statistically
>>>speaking - stop now. If you want to "prove" that it is more than 20 Elo points
>>>better, you need a few more games indeed...
>>>
>>>Best regards - Munjong.
>>
>>
>>
>>It's great to see that at least one guy is able to correctly interpret match
>>results here.
>>
>>I hope you will post more often on this subject. Information on it is very much
>>needed here.
>
>Well, as my former English teacher used to say:
>
>"I'm talking to the trees - but they aren't listening to me..." :-)
>
>I guess some people just don't bother trying to consult a *basic* statistics
>book before jumping on you... ;-)
>
>Best regards - Munjong.
Please don't leave the forum and help me educate people! :)
Actually people do not need to understand all the maths behind the stats (I
don't myself), but just to understand a few basics. For example that a 10 games
match tells mostly nothing.
Christophe
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