Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 13:47:37 02/16/04
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On February 15, 2004 at 15:54:01, Dr. Oliver Brausch wrote: >On February 13, 2004 at 17:26:49, Dann Corbit wrote: > > >>Since compute power doubles in 1 year right now (up from 18 months -- it appears >>to be superexponential) in 100 years, computers will be 2^100 times faster >>(roughly). Lets say that they only make 2^50 (so that Moore's law breaks down >>very badly). >> >>That would be roughly 1,125,899,906,842,624 >>or one quintillion times faster. > >My calculation is as follows: > >Rule 1: At the moment Computers do a factor of 100 in 10 years. >=> they do a factor of 1.5 in one year. >=> in 100 years, we have at maximum 1.5^100 = 2.25^50, which even >more than 2^50. > >but there is Rule 2: The Computer-SpeedUp-Curve has a saturation. >This 1.5- factor will be decreasing with years and years. I think the opposite is true. It used to be that every 1.5 years the speed doubled. Now it has shrunk to every 1.0 years. I have seen a study that shows that compute speed has been growing superexponentially for the last couple centuries. >There is a natural decreasing of improvement in every new tecnology. >Look e.g. Cars or Airplanes. At the beginning of them the improvement >of speed every year was huge, now there is hardly one. I don't think it is true with information technology. >So I am quite sure, in 100 years we will not have computers >1.5^100 faster than now. We could be even happy, if they are >1.2^100 faster. But this is just my opinion and discussable. I expect that they might be 2^150 faster. >>The people can also benefit from things that the computers learn. But in 100 >>years, the humans will have no chance at chess, even in correspondence games. > >This is a very courageous statement. I can imagine what you say, but >I would not be so sure. I don't think that computers will solve chess. But they will "effectively" solve it.
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