Author: Joachim Rang
Date: 11:50:47 07/18/04
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On July 18, 2004 at 14:40:01, Rémi Coulom wrote: >Hi, > >I compiled a new version of the tool that I distributed yesterday. This one can >deal with larger numbers of games. I tested that it works for a 6000-game match, >so that should be enough for everyone. You can get it at this address: >http://remi.coulom.free.fr/WhoIsBest.zip > >The only difference with yesterday's program is that it is compiled with gcc >instead of msvc. the "long double" type is 80 bit in gcc and 64 in msvc. The >additional accuracy is enough to solve underflow problems. > >Concerning Joachim's problem, here is the output of the program: > > This program evaluates the likelihood that program A is better than >program B, based on the result of two matches played against the same >opponent (or set of opponents). The number of games played in each of >these matches does not have to be the same. If playing against a set >of opponents, the proportion of each opponent should be the same in each >match. > The likelihood is estimated by Bayesian inference, assuming an uniform >prior distribution of the probabilites of losing and winning. > The resulting integral is estimated with a Monte-Carlo method. It may >take a long time to converge when the number of games is large (>100). >The computation can be interrupted at any time with Ctrl-C. > >A wins = 197 >A losses = 108 >A draws = 95 > >B wins = 189 >B losses = 130 >B draws = 81 > >P(A>B) = 0.890434 (600000000 iterations) > >Rémi thank you very much for this updated version. regards Joachim
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