Author: Rémi Coulom
Date: 11:40:01 07/18/04
Hi, I compiled a new version of the tool that I distributed yesterday. This one can deal with larger numbers of games. I tested that it works for a 6000-game match, so that should be enough for everyone. You can get it at this address: http://remi.coulom.free.fr/WhoIsBest.zip The only difference with yesterday's program is that it is compiled with gcc instead of msvc. the "long double" type is 80 bit in gcc and 64 in msvc. The additional accuracy is enough to solve underflow problems. Concerning Joachim's problem, here is the output of the program: This program evaluates the likelihood that program A is better than program B, based on the result of two matches played against the same opponent (or set of opponents). The number of games played in each of these matches does not have to be the same. If playing against a set of opponents, the proportion of each opponent should be the same in each match. The likelihood is estimated by Bayesian inference, assuming an uniform prior distribution of the probabilites of losing and winning. The resulting integral is estimated with a Monte-Carlo method. It may take a long time to converge when the number of games is large (>100). The computation can be interrupted at any time with Ctrl-C. A wins = 197 A losses = 108 A draws = 95 B wins = 189 B losses = 130 B draws = 81 P(A>B) = 0.890434 (600000000 iterations) Rémi
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