Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 18:10:25 01/12/05
Go up one level in this thread
On January 12, 2005 at 20:30:28, Uri Blass wrote: >On January 12, 2005 at 20:23:57, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On January 12, 2005 at 19:40:26, chandler yergin wrote: >> >>>On January 12, 2005 at 18:55:04, Dann Corbit wrote: >>> >>>>On January 12, 2005 at 18:49:06, chandler yergin wrote: >>>> >>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 18:45:47, Dann Corbit wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 17:49:17, chandler yergin wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 17:39:55, Uri Blass wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 13:31:16, chandler yergin wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 10:54:26, Anthony Cozzie wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 02:33:38, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>In my (private) endgame testsuite Fruit scored better than some programs >>>>>>>>>>>with tablebase support (e.g. Junior8 and Crafty). >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Quite stunning - it seems, >>>>>>>>>>>that excellent search depth compensates TBs! >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Your opinion.. Provide evidence! >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> And my suite has some 5/6 piece >>>>>>>>>>>positions were TB access is definitely advantage. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>IMO the 5-piece tablebases are just not that interesting and really not worth >>>>>>>>>>that much in terms of elo. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>What are the Current ELO Ratings for Top Programs, including yours? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>THey represents exact play, and all positions possible are immediatly shown. >>>>>>>>>What more can you expect? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> A little endgame knowledge can cover most of the >>>>>>>>>>positions and be a lot faster too. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>Absolute NONSENSE! >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Not nonsense. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>In most of the position of 5 pieces or less than it computers can find the right >>>>>>>>move with no tablebases. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Nonsense Uri! >>>>>>>They "May" find it... Ha Ha.. in how long! >>>>>>>Stop the Crap! >>>>>> >>>>>>Suppose that a tablebase takes 2 days to create today. >>>>>>Next year it will take one day to create it. >>>>>>The following year, it will take 12 hours. >>>>>>Year 3: 6 hours >>>>>>Year 4: 3 hours >>>>>>Year 5: 90 minutes >>>>>>Year 6: 45 minutes >>>>>>Year 7: 22.5 minutes >>>>>>Year 8: 11.25 minutes >>>>>>Year 9: 5.625 minutes >>>>>>Year 10: 2.8125 minutes >>>>>>Year 11: 1.40625 minutes >>>>>>Year 12: 42.1875 seconds >>>>>>Year 13: 21.09375 seconds >>>>>>Year 14: 10.546875 seconds >>>>>>Year 15: 5.2734375 seconds >>>>>>Year 16: 2.63671875 seconds >>>>>>Year 17: 1.318359375 seconds >>>>>>Year 18: 0.6591796875 of a second >>>>>>Year 19: 0.32958984375 of a second >>>>>>Year 20: 0.164794921875 of a second. >>>>>> >>>>>>What that means is that perfect information will be generated in a fraction of a >>>>>>second, if that is what is desired. >>>>>> >>>>>>This is a conservative estimate, since compute power seems to be growing >>>>>>superexponentially, rather than just exponentially. >>>>> >>>>>Key Word: >>>>>"Seems" >>>>> >>>>>There is a Practical Limit! >>>>>There is not enough time even to the end of the World to "Brute Force" >>>>>all possible combinations... Until you do, there is NO Proof of anything! >>>>>Now if you can't understand that.. I'm sorry! >>>> >>>>The computer does not have to calculate chess perfectly to the end. It only has >>>>to outcalculate its opponent. >>> >>>Reminds me of the story wehn Einstein & Nils Bohr >>>were hiking in the woods... >>>They came accross a huge grizzly bear.. >>>Nils bent down and started going through his backpack, pulled out , and started >>>putting on his Tennis shoes.. >>>"VAT are you doing Nils?".. said Einstein, >>>"You can't outrun that Bear!" >>> >>>Nils replied.. "I only have to outrun YOU, Dr. Einstein!" >>> >>> >>> Very soon, humans will have no chance against >>>>computers. >>> >>>The Opening Tree.. the Opening Book is a DataBase of Positions PLAYED! >>> >>>Humans determine Theory! Programs "Store & Retrieve" information.. >>> >>>In a Game of Human vs Computers... >>>Humans are playing what Top GM's have played before! >>>Computers have NO Intelligence! You know that! >>>ONLY when by "Advanced Chess...Humans USING Computers to advance Theory >>>will the ELO Rating of Humans & Computers advance.. >>>Humans.. have to PLay the games FIRST! >>>NOW.. The Formula for ELO Ratings is such that for GM'S, they Win or Lose >>>very FEW POINTS for a loss among their Peers! >>>Therefore.. ELO Ratings will NOT JUMP! For either Humans OR Computers. >> >>Intelligence is not needed to play the game of chess. Only compute power and >>storage. It is just like any other game with a deterministic tree. >> >>It will be a few years longer until GO is solved, but in 20 years, the best GO >>players will also be slaughtered by a computer. > >We do not know it. True. It is the most likely outcome, however. >We even do not know that chess will be solved and it is only a possibility > >I also think that the difference between solving chess and solving go is big and >solving chess is clearly easier problem and machine that is 1000000 times faster >and have 1000000 time more memory than the machine that is needed to solve chess >will be unable to solve go. Then, in log2(1000000) years, we will solve the other after the first. Less than 20 years is not such a long time to wait if you are a curious fellow.
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