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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 18:36:05 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 21:28:02, Michael Yee wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 21:07:42, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 21:03:54, Michael Yee wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:57:40, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>>>>
>>>>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>>>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>>>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>>>>full tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>If there were 10^120 in the full tree, then about 10^60 would be in the solution
>>>>>tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>It can be less than that.
>>>>
>>>>It "Can't be LESS than that!
>>>>
>>>> But it cannot be more.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>It Certainly CAN!
>>>>
>>>>In any TREE.. the TREE ONLY represents "What HAS Been PLayed."
>>>>REFUTE THAT!
>>>>Can't HUH?
>>>>
>>>>Give it up!
>>>
>>>What you just said is correct since you're talking about the *tree* of moves.
>>>But Uri and Dann are talking about the *set* of unique positions (many of which
>>>can arise through different move orders). So you and they are talking about
>>>different (mathematical) objects--trees (or paths in a tree) and graphs (or
>>>nodes in a graph).
>>>
>>>By the way, just because some quantity is large (or infinite) doesn't mean you
>>>can't prove something about it mathematically. For instance, you can prove that
>>>a geometric series (e.g., 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + ...) convergences to a number even
>>>though their are an infinite number of terms.
>>>
>>>Michael
>>
>>
>>Yeah.. ya can compute Pi to a Billion or so digits...
>>I round off at 3.1416...
>>Close enough for me..
>>So What?
>>
>>Ur missing the point.
>
>Actually, I don't think I'm missing your point. What you seem to be saying is
>this:
>
>(1) There are approx 10^120 chess positions in the *tree* of moves
>(2) There aren't even that many atoms in the universe
>(3) Therefore, it's impossible to "mathematically prove" anything about chess
>(i.e., solve it)
>
>And these are my points:
>
>(1) For solving chess, you only need to consider unique positions
>(2) You can prove things about infinite sets of things without having to "touch"
>each item. For example, we can even stay with your move tree and consider a K
>and Q versus K ending. Ignoring the 50-move rule, there are infinitely many
>move-paths (in your model) starting from some root position. By your thinking (I
>think), it would be impossible to prove that K+Q is a win because you couldn't
>possibly deal with an infinite number of move paths. But I think you would agree
>that it's easily shown to be a win.


End Game Tablebases Prove it... of course...

What was the Topic?
Solving.. the Game of Chess.
Try reading with comprehension, and stick to the subject!
Too complicated for ya??

>
>Michael



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