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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 15:38:28 01/13/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 13, 2005 at 03:30:48, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 13, 2005 at 02:03:42, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 13, 2005 at 01:35:44, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 13, 2005 at 00:50:00, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 22:07:58, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 21:33:06, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 21:17:58, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:58:47, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:42, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>>>>>>>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>>>>>>>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>>>>>>>>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>>>>>>>>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>>>>>>>>>full tree.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>The problem is that the number of nodes in the full tree is bigger than the
>>>>>>>>>number of positions because the same position can happen in many branches of the
>>>>>>>>>tree.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Even with perfect order of moves you cannot solve KRB vs KR by alpha beta with
>>>>>>>>>sqrt(2^30) nodes.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>I think you are on my side...
>>>>>>>>;)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I disagree both with you and Dann.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>If you want to generate tablebases you cannot use sqrt like Dan suggest.
>>>>>>>If you want to analyze possibility in games then sqrt is enough.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>In case that there are 10^120 games and 10^40 positions then chess can be solved
>>>>>>>by sqrt(10^120) nodes or by 10^40 nodes
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>A NODE, IS a Position! Correct?
>>>>>
>>>>>Node is a position that is searched by the chess engine.
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If there are 10^120 Games.. then 'every move' in those 10^120 games ARE
>>>>>>Positions.
>>>>>
>>>>>Yes but not all of them are different so it is possible that there are only
>>>>>10^40 different positions in a tree of 10^120 positions.
>>>>>
>>>>>There are too way to try to solve chess
>>>>>
>>>>>1)search(in this case you may search the same node in a lot of branches and you
>>>>>search both 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d6 or 1.e4 d6 2.e4 e6 or 1.d4 e6 2.e4 d6 or 1.d4 d6
>>>>>2.e4 e6)
>>>>>
>>>>>In 4 plies you can get the same position 4 times and in 80 plies that are 40
>>>>>moves you may get it trillions of times in different branches of the tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>In tree alpha beta help to get sqrt of the number of games but it is not a good
>>>>>idea to solve chess.
>>>>>
>>>>>2)tablebases that seems a better idea and the problem is that today there is not
>>>>>enough memory.
>>>>>
>>>>>In this case you do not build a tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>you look at all the position first time and mark all the mates.
>>>>>you look at all the position second time and mark all positions that you can get
>>>>>mate in 1(position that is already marked)
>>>>>
>>>>>you look at all the position and mark all the positions that you cannot prevent
>>>>>mate in 1(every move will need to position that is marked as mate in 1)
>>>>>
>>>>>There is no mate in 5000 because of the 50 move rule.
>>>>>so after repeating this process 10,000 times you can continue stop it and every
>>>>>position was searched only 10,000 times.
>>>>>
>>>>>This means that if the number of positions is 10^40 then time of searching
>>>>>10^40*10,000 positions is going to be enough but you need also memory of 10^40
>>>>>positions and this is the another problem with using this solution today.
>>>>>
>>>>>I do not know if we will be able to use memory of 10^40 positions or search
>>>>>10^44 nodes in the next 100 years but I cannot say that I am sure that it is
>>>>>impossible.
>>>>>
>>>>>10^40 positions is only an estimate and I do not know the exact number of
>>>>>positions.
>>>>>
>>>>>I remember that I proved that it is less than 10^50 and even less than 10^47 in
>>>>>the past by a computer program that counted the number of possible positions for
>>>>>every possible material configuration and part of the positions that I counted
>>>>>are also illegal because both kings are in check so the estimate of 10^40 seems
>>>>>to me a good estimate.
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Argue with Dr. Hyatt, Dr. John Nunn & Frederick Freidel!
>>>>
>>>>THEY agree with ME!
>>>
>>>I need to hear from them that they agree with you.
>>
>>The Article is self-evident! R-E-A-D!
>>Comprehend!
>>
>>You are suckin hind Tit here!
>
>I read the post of hyatt but I read nothing of Nunn.
>
>>
>>
>>>
>>>It is possible that they have the opinion that chess will not be solved in the
>>>next 100 years(I only said that I do not know) but I believe that they do not
>>>claim that it is a proved fact.
>>
>>DR. John Nunn does the Math.. the fact you cannot comprehend it.. is 'your'
>>problem.
>
>I have B.sc in mathematics and M.sc and doctor of philosophy in related
>subjects.
>
>I certainly can understand mathematics but I saw no post of John nunn there.
>
>>>
>>>I do not think that they agree that it is impossible to solve chess if you have
>>>enough memory
>>>to store 10^50 positions with distance to mate or conversion and machine that
>>>can search 10^45 nodes per second.
>>>
>>>The question if this will be possible in the next 50 years or in the next 100
>>>years is an open question.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>  NO Question! Among those who know..
>>You, have a Biased Opinion and an agenda, and you are misleading people!
>
>No
>I am not misleading people.
>I say that we cannot know and that mathematics does not answer it.
>
>I say that you are misleading people when you say that we need to search 10^120
>to solve chess.
>
>Uri


What do you call people that "Refuse" to accept the Evidence?

etc. etc..


MWENTALLY DERANGED!
I refuse to continue a debate with people that need "Professional Help"


GET SOME!

Delusional..Schizophenic. in self denial..with a Messianic Complex,




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