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Subject: Re: EinStein wuerfelt nicht - No Blunders

Author: Ingo Althofer

Date: 22:54:14 03/06/05

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On March 06, 2005 at 19:00:03, Theo van der Storm wrote:
>On March 06, 2005 at 13:11:25, Lars Bremer wrote:
>>One should mention that Theo's last move was a blunder. Of course he has the
>>chance of 0.5 to win the game now, but if he doesn't, your chance is much >>better than it should be because he captured your 4. That inceased your chance
>>dramatically.
>>
>>Lars
>
>It's nice to see other people become interested in the game!
>It is more subtle then you (OR EVEN INGO!) thought.
>
>Let's have a look at 6d2xc3?
>x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.
>x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 2/6 * 5/6 = 50/216
>
>Let's have a look at 6d2-d3
>x6 moves in case of 5(but not the first time) or 6.
>x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 =  2/216
>x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4 or 5.
>x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 4/6 * 2/6 * 4/6 = 32/216
>giving a total of                                   34/216.
>
>Let's have a look at the move I played: 6d2xc2!
>x6 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.
>x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 25/216
>
>The subtlety is in the TACTICS of the first move of x4 after 6d2-d3.
>It goes to d1 leaving it only half as vulnerable to capture as d2 would be!
>
>Conclusion: My move was optimal :-)
>
>Theo

Full computer analysis agrees with Theo.
It gives the following winning chances for Theo, when both sides play optimally:
6... 6d2xc2  86 %
6... 6d2xc3  73 %
6... 6d2-d3  75 %

Ingo.

PS: I had also missed the speciality of stone x4 going to
square d1 instead of square d2.



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