Author: Ingo Althofer
Date: 22:54:14 03/06/05
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On March 06, 2005 at 19:00:03, Theo van der Storm wrote: >On March 06, 2005 at 13:11:25, Lars Bremer wrote: >>One should mention that Theo's last move was a blunder. Of course he has the >>chance of 0.5 to win the game now, but if he doesn't, your chance is much >>better than it should be because he captured your 4. That inceased your chance >>dramatically. >> >>Lars > >It's nice to see other people become interested in the game! >It is more subtle then you (OR EVEN INGO!) thought. > >Let's have a look at 6d2xc3? >x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. >x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 2/6 * 5/6 = 50/216 > >Let's have a look at 6d2-d3 >x6 moves in case of 5(but not the first time) or 6. >x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 = 2/216 >x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4 or 5. >x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 4/6 * 2/6 * 4/6 = 32/216 >giving a total of 34/216. > >Let's have a look at the move I played: 6d2xc2! >x6 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. >x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 25/216 > >The subtlety is in the TACTICS of the first move of x4 after 6d2-d3. >It goes to d1 leaving it only half as vulnerable to capture as d2 would be! > >Conclusion: My move was optimal :-) > >Theo Full computer analysis agrees with Theo. It gives the following winning chances for Theo, when both sides play optimally: 6... 6d2xc2 86 % 6... 6d2xc3 73 % 6... 6d2-d3 75 % Ingo. PS: I had also missed the speciality of stone x4 going to square d1 instead of square d2.
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