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Subject: Re: GM/IM opening stats against crafty

Author: Terry McCracken

Date: 22:36:04 06/23/05

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On June 24, 2005 at 01:30:02, Matthew Hull wrote:

>On June 24, 2005 at 01:09:08, Terry McCracken wrote:
>
>>On June 24, 2005 at 00:45:50, Matthew Hull wrote:
>>
>>>On June 23, 2005 at 23:08:24, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 17:13:16, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 16:43:19, Matthew Hull wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 15:53:46, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 14:57:35, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 11:29:32, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 09:39:48, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On June 23, 2005 at 03:37:51, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On June 22, 2005 at 16:20:32, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 22, 2005 at 13:51:40, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 22, 2005 at 03:10:00, Drexel,Michael wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 23:00:37, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 18:36:34, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 16:44:21, Torstein Hall wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 15:30:03, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 14:19:44, Robin Smith wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 14:11:23, Mark Young wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On June 21, 2005 at 14:04:37, Ted Summers wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>To sum it up " He played a drawish opening in a tactic way. " Not a good idea
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>when computers are able to hang with the best and proving themself as better
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>than humans in open tactical positions. However I still think GM Adams can pull
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>it together and Win or Draw this match.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>[D] r2q1rk1/1pp3pp/p2b4/nP1p1p1b/2PPn3/3B1N1P/P1QN1PP1/1RB1R1K1 b - - 0 17
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Having reached this position, we seemed to be watching the beginning of the end
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>for Adams in the first game but hopefully not the match.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>C4! was a killer positional shot.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>c4 was a good move, but hardly a "killer".
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>It seems clear GM Adams missed this move when he played Na5.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Perhaps Adams miissed it, but it hardly seems "clear", since Black is still OK
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>afterwards. His loss happened later.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>-Robin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>The problem here is that the kingside is already a bit open.  One does _not_, as
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>a human, allow the computer to open _both_ sides of the board in the same game.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>It invites a debacle such as this.  Of course, he made a couple of tactical
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>errors around the point where the rook on C8 was hanging, but he was already in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the wrong kind of position...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>All the comps were suggesting the same moves as played by Hydra, so there was no
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>real surprises from the white side, just black making an error here, an error
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>there, before long he fell off the rim of the canyon.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>This is in my view far to general. Black was at least = uptil move 23.Be6
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>[D]2rq1r1k/6pp/p2bB3/2p1Np1b/3Pn3/7P/P1Q2PP1/1RB1R1K1 b - - 0 23
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Define "equal".  Here I am considering the important detail that white is a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>computer, black is a human.  In that regard, black is _not_ equal up to move 23.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>By that logic Adams was already much worse after 1.e4 no matter what he did.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Let's face it, Hydra is stronger. Adams will probably be under presure in every
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>game where he has the black pieces.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> In fact, I don't believe black is anywhere near equal.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>He is equal unless you use your "considering the important detail that white is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>a computer" logic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>He isn't lost, but he is far from equal and is at best fighting for a draw.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>But in an open position.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>And he just has no chance in that kind of position.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>He was under presure, yes. That is a far cry from "has no chance".
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>But I would take white anywhere along the way in that game, as a human playing
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>another human.  And by the way, any move after the "knight to the rim" move
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>finds white better IMHO.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Your opinion is wrong, unless perhaps you mean that white had a very slight
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>advantage. That is the norm in chess, by the way.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Adams played 23...Rc7 while 23...cxd4 looks like it holds everything nicely
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>together.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Doesn't quite hold everything nicely together.  The comps were at about +1 here
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>already, went to +1.5 on the Rc7 move.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Maybe Craqfty sees +1, but the top programs don't see anything near +1 until
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>_after_ Rc7. Before Rc7 black was fine.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>You don´t have a clue.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>And you do?  :-)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>It´s always easy to sacrifice the exchange of others. In order to play this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>sacrifice you have to calculate correctly some very concrete lines.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Of course. That is obvious and I never said otherwise. All I said was that black
>>>>>>>>>>>>>is OK if he plays cxd4 instead of Rc7.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>For example 24.Bxc8 Bxe5 ( The ending after 24...Qxc8 is very difficult to play
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>for black) 25.Bxf5 d3 24.Qc6 d2 27.Bxd2 Nxd2 28.Rxe5 Nxb1 29.Bxb1 Qd1+ 30.Kh2
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Qxb1 31.Qd6 Kg8 32.Rxh5 Qxa2 = and the position after 25.Qxc8 Qf6 26.Qc4 Qxe5
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>27.g3 is very difficult to play for black.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Definitely not the typ of position you want to play against a computer.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>I agreed this is not the type of position a human wants to be in in another
>>>>>>>>>>>>>post. Did you read it before you shot off your mouth?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Therefore Adams Rc7 is a completely understandable decision.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>I agree that Adams decision was understandable. I never said otherwise. It was
>>>>>>>>>>>>>also a mistake, that's all; an understandable mistake. I have always agreed that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>by this point Adams was in the type of position that is hard for a human to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>play. That does not mean he made mistakes earlier. It is easier for white to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>create open, messy positions that are hard for a human to play than it is for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>black to prevent it, so just because it happens does not mean Adams made
>>>>>>>>>>>>>mistakes prior to getting into such a position. Hyrda won because Hydra played
>>>>>>>>>>>>>well, not because Adams "blundered" or made "outright stupid" choices or "GM
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Adams missed this move". I think it is disrespectful to GM Adams when people say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>such things, especially since Adams _didn't_ blunder.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>-Robin
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>I'll say it again.  You can throw high, fast and outside to a big hitter, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>when he slaps it over the fence, you can say "good shot".  Or you can say "lousy
>>>>>>>>>>>>pitch."  In this game, it was a lousy pitch by Adams.  If he chooses to avoid
>>>>>>>>>>>>anti-computer type chess, that's fine, and no it isn't a blunder.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Then why in http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?432636 did you say
>>>>>>>>>>>"He was guilty of a different type of blunder. Namely of playing 1. ... e5
>>>>>>>>>>>against the computer." Was it a blunder or not? Have you changed your position
>>>>>>>>>>>so that now we agree?
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>-Robin
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>No.  It was a mistake, or a blunder, or a foolhardy opening choice.  You pick
>>>>>>>>>>the description.  But it was clearly the wrong approach to playing a computer.
>>>>>>>>>>Anyone that has played them often will say the same thing...
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>I don't see why this turns into an argument when the basic premise is so well
>>>>>>>>>>understood by so many...
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Bob, believe it or not I understand the desirability of keeping the position
>>>>>>>>>closed. Over and over again I have agreed with that. But there is a second basic
>>>>>>>>>premise, also understood by so many ... play openings you know. You keep not
>>>>>>>>>addressing that.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>-Robin
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>There is nothing to address then.  Let 'im keep playing 1. e4 e5.  He has lost
>>>>>>>>both of those as black, in sterling fashion.  He can continue to do so, or he
>>>>>>>>can decide to vary as Kasparov and others have when playing computers.  We know
>>>>>>>>what sticking with e5 is going to produce.  We know the computer is not going to
>>>>>>>>change.  So either he does, or he goes down in flames.  Which would you
>>>>>>>>suggest???
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>If I were to suggest something to Adams, it would be for him to play the Caro.
>>>>>>>At least he has played it on occaision, so it is not completely unfamiliar. But
>>>>>>>if he does opt for 1...e5 I won't hurl insults at him, implying he is stupid, as
>>>>>>>you have done. If he plays 1...e5 I would assume that he is more comfortable
>>>>>>>playing such openings against computers than he is playing other openings. All
>>>>>>>the GMs practice with computers these days. Do you honestly belive you know
>>>>>>>better than Adams what openings he does best against computers?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If you can show double king pawn games where GMs on the black side do well
>>>>>>against _strong_ computers, you will have made your point.
>>>>>
>>>>>Fair enough. How about:
>>>>>
>>>>>Deep Blue - Kasparov, 1996. Kasparov won.
>>>>>Deep Fritz - Kramnik 2002, game 1. An easy draw for Kramnik
>>>>>Deep Fritz - Kramnik 2002, game 3. Kramnik won.
>>>>>Kasparov - X3D Fritz, 2003, game 2. Even though Kasparov lost this game he was
>>>>>in a _superior_ and _relatively closed_ position when he blundered away at least
>>>>>an easy draw (with some _winning_ chances) on move 32.
>>>>>
>>>>>Is that enough?
>>>>>
>>>>>-Robin
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>How about listing _all_ such games?  Might there be a _different_ overall
>>>>conclusion based on all e4 e5 games, rather than cherry-picking one here and
>>>>there?
>>>
>>>
>>>Here are the opening stats for scrappy (Crafty versus humans only) losses in the
>>>last year or so (opening code and # of games):
>>>
>>>Scrappy losses playing the white pieces
>>>A02 1
>>>A40 1
>>>B07 1
>>>C02 2
>>>A03 5
>>>Scrappy losses playing the black pieces
>>>A00 1
>>>A05 1
>>>A25 1
>>>A46 1
>>>C41 1
>>>C45 1
>>>D45 1
>>>D85 1
>>>E15 1
>>>E70 1
>>>E92 1
>>>A79 2
>>>B22 2
>>>C42 2
>>>D02 2
>>>D10 2
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>You're quite a "brown-noser" aren't you?
>>
>>And you told me Authority didn't carry weight with you!?
>
>
>That's why I posted facts.
>
>
>>
>>I think Robin made his point and I wouldn't put as much stock in games such as
>>these as there is no impetus for the IMs/GMs to win, other than pride. The T/C
>>are very important too, so I hope you selected 120 standard.
>>
>>Another thing, people are often put off of seeing openings listed as A00 down
>>through the list.
>>
>>Oh sorry, you know soooo much more than I or Robin or just about anyone you
>>disagree with.
>>
>>We have names for people like you
>
>
>Uh, factual and logical.
>
>:)
>
>Thanks!
>
>
You wouldn't know an accurate fact if it bit you in your posterior.
>>but it would get me banned and that would make
>>you so terribly happy, so I won't accommodate you.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>>Until then, Bob has made his point, IMHO, and the recent games are eloquent
>>>>>>testimony to that fact.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>-Robin
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>But it _is_ a
>>>>>>>>>>>>mistake.  You play to your opponent's weaknesses, not to his strength, for max
>>>>>>>>>>>>advantage.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Michael
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>But then the next few moves were mostly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>bad by black, turning this into a debacle.  But if there were not so many open
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>files, open diagonals, etc, black wouldn't have had to be worrying about tactics
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>all over the board.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> One line could be 23...cxd4 24.Qxc8 Qf6 25.Qc4 Qxe5 26.Qa5 and black
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>looks OK to me.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>But white looks better to me there.  Maybe not "winning better" but
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>"significantly better".
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Try "very slightly better". Adams played well until Rc7. Hydra is very strong
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>and kept putting the presure on and finally Adams made a mistake.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>-Robin



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