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Subject: Re: WCCC Guessing Game

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 17:43:32 08/11/05

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On August 11, 2005 at 14:36:26, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:

>On August 11, 2005 at 14:05:54, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>I've never seen a beginner win an event, so in that respect
>never a non-favourite was the 'lucky' winner.

I'd bet most considered us "beginners" in 1983.  When compared to the veteran
belle, chess 4.x, chaos, advance, etc.


>
>This is just a lame excuse yours to apology for possible disaster.

I don't appologize for anything.  I leave the excuse making and whining to you,
that seems to be your forte', no?  I've _never_ made excuses.  We play bad, we
just play bad. We play well, we just play well.



>
>Personally i give crafty 0%, simply because last 16 years the winner of
>the world championship has been a program with the machine local at
>the tournament site.

Fortunately this is not an "appointed title."  We have to play the games.  Local
vs remote has zero to do with playing chess and winning games...






>
>>Another note.  I don't think anyone properly recognizes the importance of the
>>"luck" factor in where you finish in these events.
>>
>>In a 9 round match, it is pretty likely that one win or loss will be based
>>solely on luck.  Just got deep enough on one key move.  Almost got deep enough
>>on one key move.  Just barely chose the wrong opening choice at a key point in
>>the game.  Etc.
>>
>>If you are lucky and win against a favorite, your overall chances just went up.
>>If you are unlucky and lose against someone you should have beaten, your overall
>>chances just went down.
>>
>>I've seen that happen way too many times to ignore the "luckishness" of the
>>game.  Yes skill is important.  But without a little good luck to go along with
>>it, skill isn't always enough.  For example, being lucky enough that the TD
>>makes an insane decision about a draw claim and changes the overall tournament
>>winner.  :)



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