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Subject: Re: another note

Author: Bruce Moreland

Date: 01:06:56 09/20/05

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On September 19, 2005 at 12:01:00, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>If you were to ask anyone here, at the beginning of a WCCC-type event, "who is
>the favorite?" the most common answer by far would be Shredder.  Probably
>followed by Deep Junior and/or Deep Fritz (if they played).
>
>Why is that?
>
>Because Shredder has won several events in recent years?
>
>Because everyone watches shredder games on the chess servers and notice how well
>it plays in most all positions?
>
>Those are the _same_ criteria I would use in guessing how DB would perform
>today, based on how it performed when it was active, and how its predecessor
>performed under the same conditions...
>
>It really was a remarkable machine.  All the more so back in 1996/1997.  It
>might not have nearly the same edge over us today that it had back in 1997, but
>if we are going to speculate, then we at least have to speculate that
>development continued on DB.  In 1996 I was doing about 80K nodes per second.
>Today I can do about 100X more.  So Deep Blue should get at _least_ that same
>improvement, if not more.  20 billion nodes per second or more is just
>unimaginable...
>
>If they had continued software improvements as well, they would be doing beyond
>20 ply searches, assuming null-move was added, probably some forward pruning
>since they did some of this in the hardware anyway, etc...
>
>It would be remarkably strong.  Probably impossibly strong.

No credit for imaginary work.

We didn't see enough of DB to judge.  Who is to blame for this?  They are,
although to be fair, "they" may be IBM corporate bean-counting deal to some
extent.  Should they benefit from this by becoming permanent hypothetical
computer chess world champion?  Hell no.

You don't get to win if you don't play.

bruce



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