Author: Timothy J. Frohlick
Date: 12:40:52 05/14/99
I'm no mathematician but when you have a decision tree with many outcomes and you choose a particular path then the outcome is always contingent on unexpected events. We have all heard that grandmasters might say that they only look at a few moves and choose "the right move". This is a "good enough" ploy and is found in most decision making; both animal and human. Going for a hike in the Alaskan wilderness can be most frustrating if you don't know what you are getting into. Fighting the underbrush is exhausting. Similarly, getting into tactical complications with a computer only works if you can compute to 40 ply. If you are in the brambles and you know that you will be there for another 50 miles then you will do what it takes to get through. If you get hit by lightning or mauled by a bear that is a different story. The point is.... Chess is often won by unexpected but sound move combinations. The goal is to unbalance a position and lead your opponent into a risky venture while you are planning your own. Whoever can program a computer to do this may become a very rich man/woman.
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