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Subject: Re: 1989 opinion poll and idea for new poll question

Author: Rodney Hudlow

Date: 09:14:38 07/15/99

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On July 15, 1999 at 00:27:47, Peter Kappler wrote:

>On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On July 14, 1999 at 15:13:59, Peter Hegger wrote:
>>
>>>Hello
>>>In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked
>>>participants:
>>>"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human
>>>world champion?"
>>>Here are the answers.
>>>Year    Names
>>>1992    Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn
>>>1993    John McCarthy
>>>1994    Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu
>>>1995    Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald
>>>       Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo
>>>1997    John Stanbeck
>>>1998    Kevin O'connell
>>>1999    Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk
>>>2000    Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik
>>>2001    Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor
>>>2002    IM Julio Kaplan
>>>2005    Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen
>>>2008    Harry Nelson
>>>2010    Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner
>>>2011    Lars Hjorth
>>>2013    Tony Scherzer
>>>2014    David Levy
>>>2020    Tony Marsland
>>>2025    Dap Hartmann
>>>2030    Franz Morsch
>>>2040    Jonathan Schaeffer
>>>2050    Harm Bakker
>>>2056    Helmut Horacek
>>>NEVER   David Cahlander
>>>
>>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005.
>>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question
>>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to
>>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?"
>>>Any feedback is welcome.
>>>Regards
>>>Peter
>>
>>
>>I'd answer 1998.  I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just
>>as it did in 6 games.  He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5.  He
>>was "done" I think...
>
>
>Surely this would not have been your prediction before that match...
>
>--Peter

I agree with you Dr. Hyatt. The longer the match, the more difficult it would
have been for GK to win. The fatigue factor (both mental and physical) would
have increased with every game. Had a re-match taken place at 10 or 16 games DB
would have won for the same reasons.

Rodney Hudlow



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