Author: leonid
Date: 16:08:07 12/01/99
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On December 01, 1999 at 15:06:15, Dann Corbit wrote: >Prognostication is always going to lead to error, especially when the >extrapolation is off into the distant future. Consider the analysis of Marx and >Engels. They saw and accurately reported the bad conditions of their day. But >in extrapolation, they thought they could predict the future accurately. Their mistake was not in extrapolation. Problem was that they had their "mind set" before they started even thinking. And their mental exercise was done so well that we have this strange impression that they come to their conclustions by direct logic. Few words about something that have nothing to do with programming. Some kind of egalitarian system really existed in ancient India and to this "communist society" they came through "peaceful revolution". I am sure that the book of ancient history of India, where I found this (was printed in India in Hindi) took its information from the sources that already existed in the 19 century. Never the less after Marxist theory egalitarian statehood can be reached only through the "bloody revolution". Just one example. Could say more that this, but this is not the place for such a speach. >That's something people just are not very good at. Even mathematically, if you >look at the prediction and confidence intervals beyond the last data point, you >will see an exponential expansion of the uncertainty. > >Since we don't know what the future holds, I think it is best to try and be as >flexible as possible. > >So for a chess program that means: >0. Write in a portable base (e.g. a language standardized by ANSI or ISO) >1. Keep non-portable stuff isolated and modular > >Better yet, let someone else do the non-portable interface stuff for you >(Winboard). > >In that way, you will be more flexible to future changes. Thanks for suggestion but I expect to write on Assembler. I hope that in future 64 bits chip will stay stable as much as all Intel's chips. Assembler of 80th is still very much the same. Leonid.
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