Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:06:15 12/01/99
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Prognostication is always going to lead to error, especially when the extrapolation is off into the distant future. Consider the analysis of Marx and Engels. They saw and accurately reported the bad conditions of their day. But in extrapolation, they thought they could predict the future accurately. That's something people just are not very good at. Even mathematically, if you look at the prediction and confidence intervals beyond the last data point, you will see an exponential expansion of the uncertainty. Since we don't know what the future holds, I think it is best to try and be as flexible as possible. So for a chess program that means: 0. Write in a portable base (e.g. a language standardized by ANSI or ISO) 1. Keep non-portable stuff isolated and modular Better yet, let someone else do the non-portable interface stuff for you (Winboard). In that way, you will be more flexible to future changes.
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