Author: Pete R.
Date: 10:41:40 12/01/99
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On December 01, 1999 at 10:58:38, leonid wrote: >Never mind if Linux or Windows is technically superior - open code is the key >for success. I'm not convinced of this. Netscape browser is now open source, but I don't think it will improve anything against IE, technically or marketshare. It would be one thing if MS really stumbles with a horrible product, but for Linux to make a big dent I think it must be *much* better than Win200x, which I don't think will ever happen. For most of the world the Windows platform will be good enough. I'm not convinced that OS price will be a signficant issue for the business world. If Linux does start encroaching in the business world, MS will be forced to lower prices, so this competition is good. But Linux only looks free, because someone who is comfortable with computers can download and install it. In reality Red Hat will become the defacto Linux, the MS of Linux if you will, and this is where businesses will go to get their Linux. It's not free, and neither is the tech support. You also have to buy all the application suites for your business, and hire people who can administer it, deploy it, update it, and do your custom development, so the cost of the OS itself is nowhere near as important in the corporate world as it is to the techie user. And if all your partners use MS Office you probably will want to as well, so immediately Linux is a no-go. Office is *the* ace that MS has for leverage on the desktop. Like I said the government could help competition in one fell swoop if they forced MS to port Office to Linux, which will not happen. A secondary option would be to at least force MS to publish all details of their filespecs for Office products, so that other suites could have absolute 100% file compatibility. That's not as good though, because Mrs. Jones the secretary doesn't want to learn how to use a new suite of products, and neither do most people who have invested years in it and don't like learning new software. MS will therefore be able to leverage their 95% marketshare that they have with Office into keeping Windows on the desktop, and encouraging adoption of BackOffice products and messaging products by leveraging Office 2000 and beyond to hook into them by design. This Office - BackOffice integration is clearly the plan, and hey, it works. I just don't see any way to overcome the leverage options that MS has due to their market position, especially with Office. Either there has to be a killer app suite that everyone has to have instead of Office (beyond unlikely) or MS has to come out with such a lemon OS that no one can stand it, which also has no chance of happening since most of the world seems fine with Win95 and Win98. If people can tolerate Win9x, they will love 2000. MS will probably smack a homerun with 2000, and once the major complaint about Win95 goes away (having to reboot all the time), where is the real appeal of Linux to the vast majority of users? Anyway it's an interesting debate, but not topical for this group, so I'll leave it there. In a few years we'll see if anything has changed. :)
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