Author: Mark Young
Date: 15:59:00 01/06/00
Go up one level in this thread
On January 06, 2000 at 16:45:46, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On January 06, 2000 at 11:58:00, walter irvin wrote: > >>what does it take to defeat a GM in a 6 game match?????? what ply does the >>computer start pushing the GM back ????? to unify the guess it is nessisary to >>stick with 1 program .also to pick a program most people have , so i choose >>crafty .since every one is trying to figure out 40/2 hrs.lets figure what mhz is >>needed to reach the different ply at 40/2 hr . >> >>ply elo mhz available score vs GM >>1 1350 ? now 0-6 >>2 1400 ? now 0-6 >>3 1450 ? now 0-6 >>4 1500 ? now 0-6 >>5 1550 ? now 0-6 >>6 1600 ? now 0-6 >>7 1800 ? now 0-6 >>8 2000 ? now 0-6 >>9 2100 ? now 0-6 >>10 2200 ? now 0-6 >>11 2300 90 mhz + now 0-6 >>12 2400 133 mhz + now 1-5 >>13 2450 300 mhz + now 1-5 >>14 2500 450 mhz + now 2-4 >>15 2550 600 mhz + now 2-4 >>16 2600 2 ghz + now w/multi proc 3-3 >>17 2650 ? ?? 3-3 >>18 2700 ? ?? 4-2 >>19 2750 ? ?? 4-2 >>20 2800 ? ?? 5-1 >>21 2850 ? ?? 5-1 >>22 2900 ? ?? 6-0 >> >>this is my (guess) i think beyond 22 ply its over for man vs machine . > > >two issues. First, your mhz ratings are off a bit. It takes about 3x the >mhz to get one additional ply. so from 12 (which takes about 200 ie a P6/200) >to 13 takes a 600mhz machine. 13 to 14 takes a 1.8 ghz machine. etc. That >slows the curve down a bit. > >Second, I can't guess how a 22-ply crafty will play. It will be tactically >overwhelming for sure. But I am not yet convinced that a GM can't steer the >game into positions where that tactical skill is less important than chess >knowledge. So I will hedge my bet and not pick a ply where the machine will >become invincible. I am not sure it exists for any kind of hardware I expect >to see in my lifetime... I think you are correct, and this would also suggest you may not get a steady increase (50 elo) per ply, but a decreasing rating gain as you increase in ply depth.
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