Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 17:18:50 02/23/00
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On February 23, 2000 at 20:10:17, blass uri wrote: >On February 23, 2000 at 19:54:40, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On February 23, 2000 at 19:49:38, blass uri wrote: >>[snip] >>>I know that the theory is based on mathematics but it is possible to do a >>>different theory that say that >>> >>>if people with 2400 earn 36% of the points against people with 2500 >>>and people with 2300 earn 36% of the points against people with 2400 >>>then >>>people with 2300 earn 26% of the points against people with 2500 >>> >>>I see no reason to assume that 24% is correct and not 26% or 22% unless 24% is >>>based on practical results of games and I know that the probabilities are not >>>based on practical results of games(I know that the probabilities are based on >>>the assumption that the ability of players has a normal distribution with 200 >>>wlo standard deviation) >>> >>>The only way to have a better guess about the probabilities is to count results >>>of games between people with 100 elo difference and between people with 200 elo >>>difference but I do not know about somebody who did it. >> >>The way the ELO figures are computed is from actual games. Since the games are >>used to compute the curves, the results are accurate. Of course, they do >>require a huge number of trials to get an accurate figure. >> >>In other words, the actual games themselves determine the ELO, not the other way >>around. > >Suppose that a wins against b 64:36 >b wins against c 64:36 > >The question is what is the expected result of a against c based only on this >information. > >If it is not 76:24 then the rating is based on wrong assumptions. You cannot extrapolate a single performance based upon ELO. It is how we can expect a large body of data to behave. It is like trying to predict a coin toss sequence. You won't predict a single sequence. But you can predict averages over millions of sequences. >I do not know about investigation of the results between a and c > >It is possible to find the differnece in elo rating that produce practically >64:36(suppose it is 100 elo) >now it is possible to check if differnece of 200 elo gives result that is >practically different then 76:24 It's been tested if that is what you are wondering. If the model were wrong, it's self adjusting anyway. Apparently, it is not terribly useful for extreme ELO differences, but it works well withing spans of a few hundred.
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