Author: Don Dailey
Date: 08:29:06 02/25/98
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>I have wondered why programs evaluations are measured in pawns intead of >probablilities of winning. Has no one done this? Has anyone ever taken >the evaluations in Informant as probabilities of winning and regressed >them against explanatory variables such as material, space, etc. to fit >this function. > >George Essig I'm actually working on this! This is how I think of evaluation and it would be natural to convert the program to this system. However I'm not sure it's any more useful than simply finding the right function to convert a score to a probability. But most of it's usefulnes is just thinking in these terms (whether you actually implement it or not.) For instance, I believe having an advanced passed pawn should not affect your probability of winning too much if you are already a piece up, but should have more impact on the score if you are down a piece. A simple linear bonus for this passed pawn might not be quite right. In general, I believe many positional terms should change in value when material is not close to zero. Another way of viewing this is to say "don't be as eager to hunt pawns if you are already have extra material." It's the same concept. - Don
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