Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Probability [OT]

Author: Russell Reagan

Date: 00:00:23 12/23/01

Go up one level in this thread


>We can continue it in the other forum, if you want.
>Probability makes sense, a lot of sense, to me.

Oh yes, the "other" forum. I read that for about a day, then realized it's a
bunch of yahoo's who throw out a *shocking* statement about religion or race or
some equally controversial issue, and watch the masses start a fight. Basically
a troll fest. Not everyone there is bad. I just can't read that stuff or I'd
lose my job and drop out of school because I'd spend so much time arguing over
religion and racism, sexism, etc.

Probability makes sense to me. I understand it. I guess what I should have said
was, I don't understand how it is correct. Like the evolution of the world. The
same scientists who will say that there is intelligent life out there by
probability, will tell you that we are products of evolution, which I don't
believe. I liked a man's example saying, "What are the odds of a nice shiny
watch with the name Rolex imprinted on it just randomly coming together in the
middle of the universe over a few billion years?" It's not going to happen. An
exact working replica of a Rolex watch isn't just going to randomly come
together over billions of years...unless (!) there is an intelligent creator
(humans in this case). How much more complex is a computer than a Rolex watch?
Is a computer going to randomly be created flying around in the universe with
the name Dell printed on the side with a nice little Intel Inside sticker on the
box? How much more complex is a human being than a computer? Is a human being
going to just randomly be created from gases floating around in the universe?
That's what the "experts" will tell you.

My point regarding probability theory here is that it's extremely unlikely that
something as complex as a human being, computers, wrist watches, etc. are going
to be randomly created just because a long time period is supposedly spanned.
It's highly unlikely (from a probability standpoint) that evolution is correct,
yet probability is used for the evidence towards beliefs in other theories, such
as the intelligent life on other planets theory. My point: scientists pick and
choose when and what they want to use. If it's to their advantage, they use it,
if it's not, they just "ignore" it. Makes you wonder about the "experts".

Russell



This page took 0.01 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.