Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 13:57:01 12/23/01
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On December 23, 2001 at 03:00:23, Russell Reagan wrote: >Probability makes sense to me. I understand it. I guess what I should have said >was, I don't understand how it is correct. Like the evolution of the world. The >same scientists who will say that there is intelligent life out there by >probability, will tell you that we are products of evolution, which I don't >believe. I liked a man's example saying, "What are the odds of a nice shiny >watch with the name Rolex imprinted on it just randomly coming together in the >middle of the universe over a few billion years?" It's not going to happen. An >exact working replica of a Rolex watch isn't just going to randomly come >together over billions of years...unless (!) there is an intelligent creator >(humans in this case). How much more complex is a computer than a Rolex watch? >Is a computer going to randomly be created flying around in the universe with >the name Dell printed on the side with a nice little Intel Inside sticker on the >box? How much more complex is a human being than a computer? Is a human being >going to just randomly be created from gases floating around in the universe? >That's what the "experts" will tell you. > >My point regarding probability theory here is that it's extremely unlikely that >something as complex as a human being, computers, wrist watches, etc. are going >to be randomly created just because a long time period is supposedly spanned. >It's highly unlikely (from a probability standpoint) that evolution is correct, >yet probability is used for the evidence towards beliefs in other theories, such >as the intelligent life on other planets theory. My point: scientists pick and >choose when and what they want to use. If it's to their advantage, they use it, >if it's not, they just "ignore" it. Makes you wonder about the "experts". > >Russell You have missed the point somewhere along the line. Evolution is believed to be a law of nature, a cascade effect like that of an avalanche - once it starts it can't be stopped. But we need the right conditions for the avalanche set off, and this is where the probability issues enter. We know life can exist on Earth under extremely hostile conditions, there is no reason to believe this should be different on other planets. It is much like the development of a chess program, you try some new ideas, if they don't work you throw them away and stick with what you had. Nature has done plenty of experiments, some work some don't, you know the frase "survival of the fittest", that is evolution in a nutshell and Nature is very serious about it. Scientist don't just pick and choose what they believe in :) Evolution is as close to proven as it can possibly be. -S.
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