Author: Stephen A. Boak
Date: 20:30:56 06/04/02
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hi Dan, 1. Since Elo's system defines (by design choice!) each specific rating difference in terms of a specific expected scoring percentage, regardless of where the two ratings fall on the scale, I suspect (but am not sure, not having worked out the math yet on paper) that the simple plotting of ratings in a histogram would not be a normal bell-shaped curve. Wouldn't some transformation be required to convert such ratings into 'normalized' figures which *theoretically* might look more like a bell shaped curve? 2. Over time, as new & improved program versions & ratings rise, due to advances in chess programming algorithms & techniques (and hardware improvements, perhaps), wouldn't the overall plotting of ratings on a histogram (roughly from older, weaker programs to newer, stronger programs) more closely follow the growth curve for average rating of each new crop of released program/hardware, rather than the normal bell curve. 3. Perhaps any program crop released within a relatively short span of time (say a year or so) would have ratings plottable (with transformation, as noted above) that closely approximate the normal (bell) curve. Your thoughts on these ideas would be welcome. --Steve
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