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Subject: Re: DTS article robert hyatt - revealing his bad math

Author: Vincent Diepeveen

Date: 09:58:23 09/03/02

Go up one level in this thread


On September 03, 2002 at 12:54:05, Matthew Hull wrote:

>On September 03, 2002 at 12:33:12, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>
>>On September 03, 2002 at 12:28:55, Matthew Hull wrote:
>>
>>>On September 03, 2002 at 11:56:48, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>>>
>>>>We all know how many failures the past years parallel programs have been
>>>>when developed by scientists. This years diep show at the teras was no
>>>>exception to that. The 3 days preparation time i had to get
>>>>to the machine (and up to 5 days before tournament
>>>>i wasn't sure whether i would get system time *anyway*).
>>>>
>>>>However sponsors want to hear how well your thing did. At a 1024
>>>>processor machine (maximum allocation 512 processors within 1 partition
>>>>of shared memory) from which you get 60 with bandwidth of the memory
>>>>2 times slower than local ram, and let's not even *start* to discuss
>>>>the latency otherwise you will never start to fear diep using that
>>>>machine. All i can say about it is that the 20 times slowed down
>>>>Zugzwang was at 1999 at a machine with faster latency...
>>>>
>>>>I'm working hard now to get a DIEP DTS NUMA version ready.
>>>>
>>>>DTS it is because it is dynamic splitting wherever it wants to.
>>>>
>>>>Work for over a month fulltime has been done now. Tests at a dual K7
>>>>as well as dual supercomputer processors have been very positive.
>>>>
>>>>Nevertheless i worried about how to report about it. So i checked out the
>>>>article from Robert Hyatt again. Already in 1999 when i had implemented
>>>>a pc-DTS version i wondered why i never got near the speeds of bob
>>>>when i was not forward pruning other than nullmove. The 1999 world champs
>>>>version i had great speedups, but i could all explain them by forward
>>>>pruning which i was using at the time.
>>>>
>>>>Never i got close even dual xeon or quad xeon to speeds reported by Bob
>>>>in his DTS version described 1997. I concluded that it had to do with
>>>>a number of things, encouraged by Bob's statements. In 99 bob explained
>>>>that splitting was very cheap at the cray. He copied a block with all
>>>>data of 64KB from processor 0 to P1 within 1 clock at the cray.
>>>>
>>>>I didn't know much of crays or supercomputers at the time, except that
>>>>they were out of my budget so i believed it. However i have a good memory
>>>>for certain numbers, so i have remembered his statement very well.
>>>>
>>>>In 2002 Bob explained the cray could copy 16 bytes each clock. A
>>>>BIG contradiction to his 1999 statement. No one here will wonder
>>>>about that, because regarding deep blue we have already seen hundreds
>>>>of contradicting statements from bob. Anyway, that makes
>>>>splitting at the cray of course very expensive, considering bob copied
>>>>64KB data for each split. Crafty is no exception here.
>>>>
>>>>I never believed the 2.0 speedup in his tabel at page 16 for 2 processors,
>>>>because if i do a similar test i sometimes get also > 2.0, usually less.
>>>>
>>>>Singular extensiosn hurted diep's speedup incredible, but even today
>>>>i cannot get within a few minutes get to the speedup bob achieved in
>>>>his 1997 article.
>>>>
>>>>In 1999 i wondered about why his speedup was so good.
>>>>So Bob concluded he splitted in a smarter way when i asked.
>>>>Then i asked obviously how he splitted in cray blitz, because
>>>>what bob is doing in crafty is too horrible for DIEP to get a speedup
>>>>much above 1.5 anyway. I asked obviously how he splitted in cray blitz.
>>>>
>>>>The answer was: "do some statistical analysis yourself on game trees
>>>>to find a way to split well it can't be hard, i could do it too in
>>>>cray blitz but my source code is gone. No one has it anymore".
>>>>
>>>>So you can feel my surprise when he suddenly had data of crafty versus
>>>>cray blitz after 1999, which bob quotes till today into CCC to proof how
>>>>well his thing was.
>>>>
>>>>Anyway, i can analyze games as FM, so i already knew a bit about how well
>>>>this cray blitz was. I never paid much attention to the lies of bob here.
>>>>
>>>>I thought he was doing this in order to save himself time digging up old
>>>>source code.
>>>>
>>>>Now after a month of fulltime work at DIEP at the supercomputer and having
>>>>it working great at a dual (and very little overhead) but still a bad
>>>>speedup i started worrying about my speedup and future article to write
>>>>about it.
>>>>
>>>>So a possible explanation for the bad speedup of todays software when compared
>>>>to bob's thing in 1993 and writing about it in 1997 is perhaps explained
>>>>by nullmove. Bob still denies this despite a lot of statistical data
>>>>at loads of positions (150 positions in total tried) with CRAFTY even.
>>>>
>>>>Bob doesn't find that significant results. Also he says that not a
>>>>single of MY tests is valid because i have a stupid PC with 2 processors
>>>>and bad RAM. a dual would hurt crafties performance too much.
>>>>
>>>>This because i concluded also that the speedup crafty gets here
>>>>is between 1.01 and 1.6 and not 1.7.
>>>>
>>>>Data suggests that crafties speedup at his own quad is about 2.8,
>>>>where he claims 3.1.
>>>>
>>>>Then bob referred back to his 1997 thesis that the testmethod wasn't good.
>>>>Because to get that 2.8 we used cleared hashtables and in his thesis he
>>>>cheats a little by not clearing the tables at all. to simulate a game
>>>>playing environment that's ok of course.
>>>>
>>>>However there is a small problem with his article. The search times and
>>>>speedup numbers are complete fraud. If i divide the times of 1 cpu by
>>>>the speedup bob claims he has, i get perfect numbers nearly.
>>>>
>>>>Here is the result for the first 10 positions based upon bob's article
>>>>march 1997 in icca issue #1 that year, the tables with the results
>>>>are on page 16:
>>>>
>>>>When diep searches at a position it is always a weird number.
>>>>If i claim a speedup of 1.8 then it is usually 1.7653 or 1.7920 or 1.8402
>>>>and so on. Not with bob. Bob knows nothing from statistical analysis
>>>>of data (i must claim innocent here too but i am at least not STUPID
>>>>like bob here):
>>>>
>>>>pos   2      4      8   16
>>>>1  2.0000 3.40   6.50   9.09
>>>>2  2.00   3.60   6.50  10.39
>>>>3  2.0000 3.70   7.01  13.69
>>>>4  2.0000 3.90   6.61  11.09
>>>>5  2.0000 3.6000 6.51   8.98876
>>>>6  2.0000 3.70   6.40   9.50000
>>>>7  1.90   3.60   6.91  10.096
>>>>8  2.000  3.700  7.00  10.6985
>>>>9  2.0000 3.60   6.20   9.8994975 = 9.90
>>>>10 2.000  3.80   7.300 13.000000000000000
>>>>
>>>>This clearly PROOFS that he has cheated completely about all
>>>>search times from 1 processor to 8 processors. Of course
>>>>now that i am running myself at supercomputers i know what is
>>>>the problem. I only needed a 30 minute look a month ago
>>>>to see what is in crafty the problem and most likely that was
>>>>in cray blitz also the problem. The problem is that crafty
>>>>copies 44KB data or so (cray blitz 64KB) and while doing that
>>>>it is using smp_lock. That's too costly with more than 2 cpu's.
>>>>
>>>>This shows he completely lied about his speedups. All times
>>>>from 1-8 cpu's are complete fraud.
>>>>
>>>>There is however also evidence he didn't compare the same
>>>>versions. Cray Blitz node counts are also weird.
>>>>
>>>>The more processors you use the more overhead you have obviously.
>>>>Please don't get mad at me for calculating it in the next simple
>>>>but very convincing way. I will do it only for his first node
>>>>counts at 1..16 cpu's, the formula is:
>>>>  (nodes / speedup_i-cpu's ) * speedup_i+1_cpu's
>>>>
>>>>1 to 2 cpu's we don't need the math.
>>>>If you need exactly 2 times shorter to get to it but
>>>>thereby you need more nodes at more cpu's (where you need
>>>>expensive splits) then that's already weird of course, though
>>>>not impossible.
>>>>
>>>>2 to 4 cpu's:
>>>> 3.4 * (89052012 / 2.0) = 151388420.4 nodes.
>>>>  bob needed: 105.025.123 which in itself is possible.
>>>>  Simply like 40% overhead extra for 4 processors which 2 do
>>>>  not have. This is very well possible.
>>>>
>>>>4 to 8 cpu's:
>>>>  6.5 * 105025123 nodes / 3.4 = 200.783.323
>>>>  bob needed: 109MLN nodes
>>>>  That means at 8 cpu's the overhead is already approaching
>>>>  100% rapidly. This is very well possible. The more cpu's
>>>>  the bigger the overhead.
>>>>
>>>>8 to 16 cpu's:
>>>>  9.1 * (109467495 / 6.5) = 153254493
>>>>  bob needed: 155.514.410
>>>>
>>>>My dear fellow programmers. This is impossible.
>>>>
>>>>Where is the overhead?
>>>>
>>>>The factor 100% at least overhead?
>>>>
>>>>More likely factor 3 overhead.
>>>>
>>>>The only explanation i can come up with is that the node counts
>>>>from 2..8 processors are created by a different version from
>>>>Cray Blitz than the 16 processor version.
>>>>
>>>>From the single cpu version we already know the number of nodes gotta
>>>>be weird because it is using a smaller hashtable (see page 4.1 in the
>>>>article second line there after 'testing methodology').
>>>>
>>>>We talk about mass fraud here.
>>>>
>>>>Of course it is 5 years ago this article and i do not know whether
>>>>he created the table in 1993.
>>>>
>>>>How am i going to tell my sponsor that my speedup won't be the same
>>>>as that from the 1997 article? To whom do i compare, zugzwang?
>>>>'only' had on paper 50% speedup out of 512 processors. Of course also
>>>>something which is not realistic. However Feldmann documented most of
>>>>the things he did in order to cripple zugzwang to get a better speedup.
>>>>
>>>>A well known trick is to kick out nullmove and only use normal alfabeta
>>>>instead of PVS or other forms of search. Even deep blue did that :)
>>>>
>>>>But what do you guys think from this alternative book keeping from Bob?
>>>>
>>>>Best regards,
>>>>Vincent
>>>
>>>
>>>It sounds like you are saying in effect, "If I cannot duplicate Bob's
>>>performance numbers with DIEP, then Bob's claims are false".
>>
>>No. please look at the data.
>>
>>There is a 1 / 10^30 chance you get such data.
>>
>>In short he has made up the data. The search times he has 'invented'
>>himself.

I am not talking about my machine here. i am talking about the
fraud committed by bob.

pos   2      4      8   16
1  2.0000 3.40   6.50   9.09
2  2.00   3.60   6.50  10.39
3  2.0000 3.70   7.01  13.69
4  2.0000 3.90   6.61  11.09
5  2.0000 3.6000 6.51   8.98876
6  2.0000 3.70   6.40   9.50000
7  1.90   3.60   6.91  10.096
8  2.000  3.700  7.00  10.6985
9  2.0000 3.60   6.20   9.8994975 = 9.90
10 2.000  3.80   7.300 13.000000000000000

There is a chance smaller than 1/10^30 that 'by accident' such
numbers happen. that's 0.0000000000000000000000000000001
with about 30 zero's before the 1 happens.

In short statistical analysis very clearly shows his fraud. I hope you
realize in court statistical analysis is a legal method to proof you
are right. It proofs clearly here his numbers are a big fraud and
setup.

>Perhaps if you had a good understanding and experience of Cray architecture,
>your statement would have more weight.  But, the supercomputer you are using is
>really very different from a Cray.  That much I do know.  You can't expect to
>get the same performance with a fundamentally different architecture.
>
>It's the same with the AMD versus XEON memory architecture.  They're not the
>same.  XEON with interleaved memory has an advantage here.  Everyone acknowleges
>that an AMD is not going to get as good a speed up as a XEON with interleaved
>memory, as has been explained countless times already.
>
>The same is true for supercomputers.  The designs and special hardware
>advantages differ significantly.
>
>You can't prove a lie by comparing apples to oranges.
>
>>
>>I hope you realize that.
>>
>>It shows very hard he cheated. There is no way to escape statistical
>>analysis, even though in computer chess most dudes do not know what it is.
>>
>>They do not know you can catch fraud with statistical analysis.
>>
>>Bob sure didn't.
>>
>>>To an outside observer, this would not necessarily follow.  It remains to the
>>>reader to wonder if a person making such a statement is necessarily up to the
>>>task.  You might be a great programmer.  You might be journeyman programmer.
>>>You might be a sub-par programmer.  How are we to know?
>>>
>>>I for one cannot simply take your word for it.



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