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Subject: Re: Rating in ICC is meaningless and here is an example

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 08:51:53 01/15/03

Go up one level in this thread


On January 15, 2003 at 11:09:32, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:

>On January 14, 2003 at 20:47:46, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On January 14, 2003 at 19:47:21, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>[snip]
>
>>>I do not suggest exactly how to do it and it seems that the problem does not
>>>interest the ICC.
>>
>>
>>ICC is not interested.  FIDE is not interested.  USCF is not interested. In
>>fact, _no_ chess federation I know of does the initial rating differently than
>>what is done today.
>
>
>I told you already, FIDE does not do it in the same way.

Have they changed this recently?  My last official rules from FIDE used
the _same_ "provisional rating" formula that everyone else uses.  The
classic win+400 + draw + lose-400 / N formula that ICC uses.

So I guess I don't understand what you mean, assuming they _have_ changed
the way that they calculate _initial_ ratings.


>
>
>>You are taking a rating as an absolute value.  It is _not_.  It is an
>>estimate of how you would do against the group (pool) of players you compete
>>in.  The current TPR approach is _exact_ in that regard.  Even if it has
>>nothing to do with how you would do against other players.  I have _yet_ to
>>see anyone suggest an alternative.  Just complaints about how it is done now.
>>
>>Without suggestions on a better way, complaints are not very useful...
>>
>>"I don't like that, fix it" is _not_ going to produce changes.
>
>
>Please read my other message. First, you posted "I am waiting a real
>suggestion". I did (in two messages), you ignored them. Uri mention another
>possibility.
>
>
>>>If ICC cares about creating a better rating system
>>>They can give give 10000$ for the people who find the best rating system.
>>
>>I believe Elo did that a _long_ time back.  It has certainly stood the
>>"test of time".
>
>The theory yes, but the implementation is far from perfect and many people
>suggested improvements, including Glickman and K. Thompson.

You realize why the glickman system was developed?  The Elo system had
some basic assumptions, one of which was that active players might play one
event per month.  That means their rating should change more quickly than
what is happening today where on a chess server, a person can play 20 games
in a single day.  The Glickman formula slows your rating change as you play
more games over a short period of time.  IE on ICC Crafty's rating can change
+/-200 in a single afternoon as a loss to a player rated 300-400 points lower
will cost it 32 rating points in one game.  In the glicko system, that 32 points
would be more like 1-2 points if it had been playing lots of games every day.

Elo wasn't wrong.  But his assumptions are not always reasonable in a
world connected via the internet.  But for _either_ rating system, the
initial rating is calculated the same way because no better way has been
found.



>
>>>It seems that they do not care so they will not do it.
>>>
>>>I have also definition that we can compare based on it different rating systems.
>>>A rating system should give the expected result in every game.
>>>It is easy to use the sum of squares to find the practical error and the rating
>>>system that gives the smallest error is the most logical rating to choose.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Can you spell "Elo"???
>
>This is rather insulting. You are dealing with Uri and me like we are two
>schoolboys and you are not more qualified than any of us in this matter. I do
>not mind it if it comes with some content, but you are not even reading the
>messages. Uri pointed out a problem and you come with the
>"'I don't like that, fix it' is _not_ going to produce changes."
>What? it is not possible to post anymore something about something that you do
>not like? Before you find a solution, you have to identify a problem and discuss
>about it. Not to mention, suggestions were provided.
>
>Miguel


It wasn't intended to be insulting.  It was intended to point out that
what you are talking about is _exactly_ what the Elo system was designed to
do.

Neither of you have produced any _reasonable_ approach to initially compute
a players rating.  That seems to be all that is in debate here, as once the
provisional period is up, the Elo system seems to be accepted by all, even
with the minor "flaw" in the assumption of what K should be.  But for the
provisional period I have seen _no_ suggestion that makes any sense yet.  I
have asked you in another post to simply make a precise formulation of an
algorithm that you think is better.  I can then show you why it is not better
the current simple TPR average that everyone I can find is using, FIDE
included according to a web search a few minutes ago.



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