Author: allan johnson
Date: 16:20:12 01/29/03
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On January 29, 2003 at 13:43:30, Roger D Davis wrote: >> Roger This is mere speculation.You have no hard evidence that a fix is on. >>Until you do why should anyone listen? >>Al > >Well, this is exactly the point...there is no hard evidence. After the >Kramnik-DF match, I got kind of tired of hearing people saying it was fixed. You >can probably say ANYTHING is fixed, after the fact. At least two characteristics >separate scientific theories from conspiracy theories. First, scientific >theories make predictions. Conspiracy theories are always post doc. But the best >conspiracy theories share with scientific theories the fact that they seem to >account for all the evidence at hand. > >So this time I thought, why not turn it around and generate a conspiracy theory >that actually makes hard empirical predictions. That way, if the predictions >fail, then the conspiracy theory is falsified (taking a page in the philosophy >of science from Sir Karl Popper here). So I tried to generate the best >conspiracy theory I could, one that seems to take into account the dynamics of >the situation in a convincing way in order to predict an outcome. > >My conspiracy theory predicts that Kasparov will win, that he will win by a >narrow margin, and that only this allows him to compliment Deep Junior on its >quality of play. He needs to do all these things in order to help put Deep Blue >behind him. > >So...rather than listen to the screech of conspiracy theories, I thought it best >to actually make predictions that were open to falsification. Now it's an honest >"horse race" between Conspiracy theory and the theory that it's a Fair Match. >Let's see how it turns out. :) > >Roger Okay I can accept your rationale.Nonetheless even if the outcome is as you predict mathematics and chance come into play and there is still no evidence that the match was fixed. Al
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