Author: Graham Laight
Date: 14:35:57 10/13/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 13, 2004 at 15:58:57, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 10:34:50, Graham Laight wrote: > >>Between them, Fritz and Hydra score 7/8 in Bilbao. I have just run the simulator >>(http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391364) for an 8 game >>tournament, with the win probability at 33%, the draw probability at 34%, and >>the lose probability at 33%. If you truly believe that GMs can crush computers >>at will (implied by you 4 paragraphs above), then these odds are very generous. >> >>The results? >> >>0.52% probability of achieving 7 points >>0.09% probability of achieving 7.5 points >>0.03% probability of achieving 8 points >> >>That's only a 1/160 probability of being able to score that high. >> >>That's not right! > >Please remember that probability = probabability. _not_ absolute truth. Your "truth" is that the top computers are worse than top humans. "Think lower", you told me. Well - I know you're not going to give me an estimate as to the win/draw/lose probabilities of top computers v GMs, so I won't bother to ask - but after the work I've done with my simulator today (have you tried it? It's quick and easy to run - just follow the 4 easy steps), then if GMs are significantly better than computers at chess, I can tell you that Fritz and Hydra getting 7/8 was a sensational result. Let me give you reasonably accurate analogies from other sports with which you have some familiarity: 1. it's like the 6 stone weakling who has never had a fight before flooring the national karate champion 2. it's like a donkey and cart winning the regional drag race evening -g
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.