Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 15:22:48 10/13/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 17:35:57, Graham Laight wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 15:58:57, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On October 13, 2004 at 10:34:50, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>>Between them, Fritz and Hydra score 7/8 in Bilbao. I have just run the simulator >>>(http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391364) for an 8 game >>>tournament, with the win probability at 33%, the draw probability at 34%, and >>>the lose probability at 33%. If you truly believe that GMs can crush computers >>>at will (implied by you 4 paragraphs above), then these odds are very generous. >>> >>>The results? >>> >>>0.52% probability of achieving 7 points >>>0.09% probability of achieving 7.5 points >>>0.03% probability of achieving 8 points >>> >>>That's only a 1/160 probability of being able to score that high. >>> >>>That's not right! >> >>Please remember that probability = probabability. _not_ absolute truth. > >Your "truth" is that the top computers are worse than top humans. "Think lower", >you told me. Not quite. You seemed to have an exaggerated expectation for how the computers would perform. I said "think lower". That doesn't mean that I believe the computers are way worse than the humans. I just don't believe they are clearly better yet... > >Well - I know you're not going to give me an estimate as to the win/draw/lose >probabilities of top computers v GMs, so I won't bother to ask - but after the >work I've done with my simulator today (have you tried it? It's quick and easy >to run - just follow the 4 easy steps), then if GMs are significantly better >than computers at chess, I can tell you that Fritz and Hydra getting 7/8 was a >sensational result. Let me give you reasonably accurate analogies from other >sports with which you have some familiarity: > >1. it's like the 6 stone weakling who has never had a fight before flooring the >national karate champion > >2. it's like a donkey and cart winning the regional drag race evening No. In drag racing or karate participants are very "steady". Not so in computers vs humans at chess. Odd book lines. Good book preparation by the humans. All serve to significantly skew final results in odd ways... > >-g
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