Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 17:53:09 02/02/99
Go up one level in this thread
On February 02, 1999 at 20:12:15, KarinsDad wrote:
[snip]
>Cristobal Digamo was on the winning team in the 1997 US Amateur Team Midwest.
>His rating at that time was 1351. He won all 4 of his games. His opponent's
>ratings were 1800, 2004, 1938, and 1786. The ELO predicted chances of him doing
>this is less than 1 in 200,000 (I didn't figure it out exactly, if someone wants
>to do that, feel free).
I got 4e-6 (actually 3.97862227677179e-006), calculated as:
printf("%.15g\n", win_expectancy(1800.-1351.)*
win_expectancy(2004.-1351.)*
win_expectancy(1938.-1351.)*
win_expectancy(1786.-1351.));
That would be 1 in 251,343.2868052 --> pretty close to your figure.
Since to meet the conditions he must beat the first player AND beat the second
AND beat the third AND beat the fourth, the probabilities are multiplied. The
individual probabilities are:
0.070132762551575
0.0227768543550127
0.0329568615673801
0.0755739585740745
>Do you really think he was a moderately high D class
>player and defeated an expert, 2 class A players, and a class B player?
At the time of the tournament, and according to the definitions, that is exactly
what happened.
>Within 4 months, his rating was 1604, within 8 months 1667. His current rating
>is 1780.
This is obviously his true ability, but his ELO at the time of the wins was
1351, none-the-less.
[snip]
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