Author: KarinsDad
Date: 17:12:15 02/02/99
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On February 02, 1999 at 17:49:02, KarinsDad wrote: >On February 01, 1999 at 12:20:43, Tim Mirabile wrote: > >>On January 30, 1999 at 11:22:59, KarinsDad wrote: >> >>>Again, it would be nice to analyze results of all of the rated games in the US >>>for the last year. That would be a sample size of what, between 200,000 and >>>500,000 games? Give or take. That is what we need to find out if I am correct or >>>not. >> >>The U.S. Amateur Team East, which will be played over president's day weekend, >>offers a "best upset" prize. The winner is usually a 700-800 upset, but it's >>usually a 1000 rated kid who beats a 1700-1800. There are probably on the order >>of 2500 games played. I remember seeing something in Chess Life a few years >>back where an A-player beat Lev Alburt, possibly when he was U.S. champion. I >>think upset draws are much more than twice as likely as upset wins, but we don't >>hear about them as much. > >Is it possible that the 1000 rated player is often in reality a 1500 level >player BECAUSE he is in the US Amateur event? Think about it. You have a limit >on the total rating for a team, so you place 3 masters and a class C who hasn't >played a rated game in a year on the same team. The masters work with the "class >E" for several months to make him class C (or even class B) and that player then >beats a class B or low class A player. Not really that impressive of a result. > >To verify this, check the rating of the upset prize winners (within a year of >winning the prize) for the past 4 or 5 years and let me know the result. I found the following: Cristobal Digamo was on the winning team in the 1997 US Amateur Team Midwest. His rating at that time was 1351. He won all 4 of his games. His opponent's ratings were 1800, 2004, 1938, and 1786. The ELO predicted chances of him doing this is less than 1 in 200,000 (I didn't figure it out exactly, if someone wants to do that, feel free). Do you really think he was a moderately high D class player and defeated an expert, 2 class A players, and a class B player? Within 4 months, his rating was 1604, within 8 months 1667. His current rating is 1780. KarinsDad > >Also, you hear of the one or two upsets a year where a player 700 points or more >beats someone, but what of the thousands of games played where this does not >happen? > >KarinsDad
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