Author: KarinsDad
Date: 14:49:02 02/02/99
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On February 01, 1999 at 12:20:43, Tim Mirabile wrote: >On January 30, 1999 at 11:22:59, KarinsDad wrote: > >>Again, it would be nice to analyze results of all of the rated games in the US >>for the last year. That would be a sample size of what, between 200,000 and >>500,000 games? Give or take. That is what we need to find out if I am correct or >>not. > >The U.S. Amateur Team East, which will be played over president's day weekend, >offers a "best upset" prize. The winner is usually a 700-800 upset, but it's >usually a 1000 rated kid who beats a 1700-1800. There are probably on the order >of 2500 games played. I remember seeing something in Chess Life a few years >back where an A-player beat Lev Alburt, possibly when he was U.S. champion. I >think upset draws are much more than twice as likely as upset wins, but we don't >hear about them as much. Is it possible that the 1000 rated player is often in reality a 1500 level player BECAUSE he is in the US Amateur event? Think about it. You have a limit on the total rating for a team, so you place 3 masters and a class C who hasn't played a rated game in a year on the same team. The masters work with the "class E" for several months to make him class C (or even class B) and that player then beats a class B or low class A player. Not really that impressive of a result. To verify this, check the rating of the upset prize winners (within a year of winning the prize) for the past 4 or 5 years and let me know the result. Also, you hear of the one or two upsets a year where a player 700 points or more beats someone, but what of the thousands of games played where this does not happen? KarinsDad
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