Author: Robin Smith
Date: 17:11:59 04/20/05
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On April 20, 2005 at 02:48:05, Dann Corbit wrote: >On April 20, 2005 at 01:35:32, Robin Smith wrote: > >>On April 18, 2005 at 21:05:10, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>I doubt very much if Moore's law will quit in less than 100 years. >> >>You can't be serious. > >Serious as cancer. > >Not that we'll be using ICs in 100 years. They will look like relays would look >today for a computing machine, I am sure. Moore's law has to do with the number of transistors (or whatever kind of switch people use in the future), and that this number will grow exponentially, doubling approximately every 24 months. In 100 years that would mean 50 doublings, thus more than 4*10^23 transistors. This number is approaching the number of atoms in the earth. You are talking about one big computer. I seriously doubt it. More likely in my mind is that in 100 years people will figure out clever ways of making computers smarter and faster; bigger will not be the answer. -Robin
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